Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 20 February 2008 at 22:37:10 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2008, Arsenal vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Arsenal         26   63  +36      88.57     4.10    51.83    74.46    97.32    99.87    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   58  +36      83.98     4.20    50.61    23.73    86.01    98.82    99.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   55  +21      77.56     4.46    30.69     1.79    15.85    82.85    95.32    99.70     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   47  +18      67.82     4.58    25.30     0.00     0.19     6.48    32.60    78.14     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   44  +23      69.10     4.68    34.48     0.01     0.59     9.74    48.72    86.92     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   44  +14      64.46     4.34    21.01     0.00     0.02     0.93    10.16    52.44     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        26   44   +5      62.95     4.89     8.95     0.00     0.01     0.82     6.88    35.09     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth      26   41  +10      62.72     4.67    18.37     0.00     0.00     0.45     5.82    37.20     0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       26   39   -1      57.03     4.70     1.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.35     5.22     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        25   37   +7      55.78     4.85     8.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.28     4.46     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   32   +7      51.89     4.85    12.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.84     0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   29  -15      39.76     4.07   -25.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.29R    0.00  
Newcastle       26   28  -18      38.62     4.18   -28.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.38R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   26  -19      37.49     4.38   -27.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.91R    0.00  
Bolton          26   25   -9      35.34     4.22   -18.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.75R    0.00  
Wigan           26   23  -18      34.28     4.19   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.49R    0.01  
Birmingham      26   22  -13      34.05     4.64   -19.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.44R    0.02  
Reading         26   22  -23      35.20     4.66   -30.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.13R    0.02  
Fulham          26   19  -19      30.82     4.43   -26.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.62R    0.24  
Derby           26    9  -42      14.75     3.30   -61.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   99.70  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2008, Southampton vs Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Stoke            33   59  +15      80.52     5.27    20.53    28.21    53.77    95.75    63.89P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          33   59  +14      80.54     5.09    19.60    28.36    52.95    95.94    63.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     33   58   +1      75.26     5.06     0.25     5.12    14.89    76.69    24.86P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        32   55  +26      80.64     5.39    36.60    33.18    58.92    96.07    71.43P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         33   52  +10      72.38     5.15    13.79     1.96     6.95    60.29    21.24P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          33   51  +10      72.50     5.23    15.40     1.94     7.29    62.32    21.47P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         33   49  +10      69.79     5.10    14.27     0.68     2.75    41.75    14.09P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          32   47   +3      67.19     5.41     4.48     0.24     1.02    22.59     6.19P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull             32   47   +3      66.37     5.38     3.29     0.18     0.79    18.31     4.78P    0.04R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   46   +5      65.34     5.08     7.15     0.09     0.37    12.92     3.86P    0.04R    0.00  
Cardiff          32   44   +2      64.12     5.43     3.38     0.03     0.21    10.12     2.66P    0.20R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    32   44   -4      61.63     5.30    -5.69     0.01     0.08     4.18     0.95P    0.73R    0.05  
Norwich          33   42   -9      57.19     5.02   -12.76     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.09P    5.10R    0.39  
Barnsley         32   40  -12      55.67     5.22   -17.37     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P   10.17R    1.18  
Blackpool        33   39   -1      56.31     5.14    -1.85     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.08P    6.47R    0.56  
Sheff_Utd        32   39   -2      58.00     5.30    -1.97     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.23P    3.94R    0.30  
QPR              32   39   -7      57.02     5.41    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.13P    6.75R    0.85  
Southampton      33   38  -13      52.27     4.90   -19.22     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   25.49R    4.65  
Leicester        33   37   +2      55.66     5.05     3.32     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.06P    8.04R    1.02  
Coventry         31   36  -12      53.20     5.49   -17.16     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   22.96R    4.79  
Preston          32   33   -9      48.35     5.05   -14.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.97R   15.80  
Colchester       32   32   -7      49.68     5.36    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   41.77R   11.93  
Sheff_Wed        31   32   -7      51.11     5.62    -8.88     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   32.86R    8.67  
Scunthorpe       33   31  -18      44.58     4.81   -24.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.43R   49.77  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2008, Brighton vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Swansea          31   67  +34      98.92     5.10    52.79    97.99    99.78   100.00    99.85P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        31   56  +20      82.34     5.39    28.86     1.18    46.47    97.19    59.76P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     31   53  +23      79.89     5.42    32.15     0.46    29.69    93.42    50.04P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   52  +13      77.94     5.77    19.29     0.34    17.37    85.28    30.91P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   51   +8      69.22     4.97     9.01     0.00     0.42    28.31     5.73P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          32   49  +11      71.70     5.17    16.29     0.01     1.44    50.12    12.73P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    33   49   -4      64.62     4.91    -7.35     0.00     0.05     6.74     0.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend         32   47   +3      67.07     5.31     4.35     0.00     0.21    17.29     2.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds            32   46  +23      73.72     4.99    36.33     0.01     3.98    69.52    26.73P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   43   +6      67.99     5.51    12.50     0.00     0.34    24.46     5.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon          31   43   +5      64.52     5.49     6.82     0.00     0.08    10.24     1.88P    0.02R    0.00  
Northampton      33   43   -1      59.17     4.94    -3.46     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.13P    0.31R    0.00  
Huddersfield     31   43  -12      57.79     5.22   -20.49     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.05P    1.15R    0.00  
Brighton         30   42   +5      63.55     5.70     4.62     0.00     0.11     8.00     1.59P    0.07R    0.00  
Yeovil           33   41  -10      55.45     4.70   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    3.12R    0.00  
Hartlepool       32   40   +1      59.72     5.21     1.84     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.19P    0.52R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   40   +1      62.91     5.96     0.57     0.00     0.05     6.48     1.21P    0.20R    0.00  
Cheltenham       33   35  -19      46.91     4.54   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.00R    0.99  
Crewe            32   34  -18      48.81     5.02   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.19R    0.88  
Millwall         32   33  -17      48.02     5.01   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.21R    1.42  
Bournemouth      33   32  -17      46.65     4.69   -23.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   47.95R    1.29  
Gillingham       31   32  -19      47.85     5.23   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.50R    1.58  
Luton            31   24  -12      40.37     5.15   -19.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.62R   14.84  
Port_Vale        33   22  -24      34.06     4.58   -33.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.13R   79.00  

Adjustments:
Leeds            -15
Luton            -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 February 2008, Bradford vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Milton_Keynes_Dons   32   63  +29      91.03     5.11    42.53    39.05    85.10    99.96    90.60P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford             31   61  +22      88.54     5.48    33.03    20.83    67.75    99.69    77.22P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           31   59  +28      88.86     5.35    41.56    23.32    73.96    99.75    84.40P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         31   59  +25      87.26     5.43    37.13    16.25    60.83    99.54    73.55P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            32   54  +11      78.39     5.49    18.68     0.28     6.47    86.16    26.46P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   54   +9      72.63     5.04    10.28     0.00     0.73    50.55    11.54P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport            32   50   +7      69.82     5.43     7.66     0.00     0.28    30.39     5.76P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             30   50   +7      76.64     6.07    14.10     0.27     4.60    75.00    18.94P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            32   50   +2      69.19     5.35     2.09     0.00     0.16    24.91     4.35P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         33   48  +11      68.56     5.14    15.23     0.00     0.09    23.76     5.42P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            31   46   -5      64.16     5.56    -8.91     0.00     0.02     6.56     1.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby              33   45   -6      58.99     4.84   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.08P    0.03R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   40   -1      59.51     5.37    -0.69     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.28P    0.12R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         33   40   -8      54.69     4.96   -13.26     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.75R    0.10  
Bradford             30   38   +0      58.60     5.84    -2.07     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.31P    0.28R    0.04  
Chester              32   37  -10      51.46     5.05   -18.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    4.79R    1.11  
Accrington_Stanley   32   36  -24      49.72     5.02   -33.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.59R    3.35  
Barnet               29   35   -8      55.65     6.02   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    1.71R    0.39  
Notts_County         32   33  -12      49.18     5.16   -15.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.19R    3.28  
Bury                 31   32  -11      49.48     5.47   -16.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.73R    3.57  
Macclesfield         33   31  -17      46.99     5.14   -20.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.05R    8.29  
Dag_&_Red            32   31  -18      43.85     4.89   -28.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.91R   21.77  
Mansfield            30   28  -10      49.42     5.91   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.59R    5.28  
Wrexham              29   24  -21      40.29     5.51   -30.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.26R   52.81  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 February 2008, Aldershot vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                   -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team               Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Aldershot           32   71  +25      96.47     5.25    35.51    39.08    99.44    53.07P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay             30   65  +27      97.83     5.35    47.09    57.09    99.68    68.33P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd       31   58  +19      86.24     5.37    30.58     1.89    79.96    23.62P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage           31   57  +25      83.33     5.60    34.07     0.74    63.03    17.10P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion       31   57  +21      83.06     5.60    29.60     0.60    59.41    14.56P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter              31   55  +19      83.82     5.30    34.01     0.59    66.91    16.95P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green        31   51  +10      74.88     5.64    14.85     0.00    10.01     1.86P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury           32   49   +8      69.87     5.33    11.00     0.00     1.59     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United    30   49   +7      74.24     5.77    12.07     0.01     8.37     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Histon              30   47   +6      72.55     5.76    11.85     0.00     5.09     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
York                31   46   +2      65.26     5.43    -0.95     0.00     0.28     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town        29   45  +13      71.95     6.08    18.41     0.00     6.01     1.40P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd          32   43   -1      61.19     5.17    -2.17     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster       30   41   +0      61.03     5.69    -3.03     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grays_Athletic      29   40   -2      63.53     6.04    -1.20     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Woking              33   40   -6      56.88     4.91    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds   31   38   +2      58.55     5.50     2.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Halifax             29   32   -3      53.14     6.02    -6.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Weymouth            29   27  -13      47.55     5.91   -17.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.71R    0.00  
Altrincham          32   27  -24      37.56     4.55   -40.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.81R    0.05  
Farsley_Celtic      30   25  -23      40.34     5.33   -34.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.75R    0.08  
Stafford_Rangers    29   16  -30      30.46     5.33   -45.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.60R    8.31  
Northwich           30   15  -35      26.44     4.70   -53.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.99R   25.00  
Droylsden           31   13  -47      22.87     4.42   -68.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.09R   66.55