Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 6 January 2008 at 22:37:37 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 2 January 2008, Blackburn vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Arsenal         21   50  +26      86.85     5.24    49.74    58.61    89.84    97.41    99.44    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         21   48  +27      84.45     5.48    46.96    35.82    80.52    93.99    98.23    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         21   44  +17      75.95     5.85    31.71     3.61    16.92    52.66    76.64    95.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   39   +7      64.59     6.06    10.71     0.03     0.40     3.10    10.12    38.94     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   38  +21      73.58     5.86    38.54     1.79    10.39    37.73    66.08    91.02     0.00     0.00  
Everton         21   36  +15      66.71     5.93    28.01     0.08     0.86     6.81    19.93    58.28     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   36  +10      66.04     5.55    22.47     0.04     0.51     3.91    14.00    52.39     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth      21   34  +11      65.68     5.85    24.82     0.02     0.54     4.12    14.02    51.06     0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       21   33   +0      56.70     5.98     0.54     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.58     5.94     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        20   29   +6      56.23     6.30    10.41     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.92     6.98     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle       21   26   -6      43.15     5.42   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.60R    0.00  
Tottenham       21   24   +4      49.60     5.98     8.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.53     0.10R    0.00  
Reading         21   22  -15      38.85     5.60   -30.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.61R    0.02  
Bolton          21   20   -9      36.63     5.76   -20.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.56R    0.05  
Middlesbrough   21   20  -17      34.94     5.28   -31.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.59R    0.16  
Birmingham      21   19  -10      36.33     5.74   -20.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.48R    0.12  
Wigan           21   17  -16      35.05     5.65   -25.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.68R    0.31  
Sunderland      21   17  -20      31.61     5.39   -35.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.06R    0.81  
Fulham          21   15  -15      30.96     5.57   -26.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.48R    1.03  
Derby           21    7  -36      15.13     4.21   -63.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.82R   97.48  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2008, Blackpool vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Brom        26   47  +25      85.91     6.73    43.92    61.86    81.82    98.44    87.53P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   47  +10      78.23     6.97    15.49    14.05    35.78    84.35    47.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     26   47   +3      76.73     7.02     6.51     8.66    26.20    77.96    36.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Stoke            26   43   +9      76.36     7.10    18.09     8.81    27.51    78.46    40.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton         26   40   +5      68.85     7.03     7.05     1.28     5.32    38.76    13.41P    0.13R    0.00  
Ipswich          26   39   +8      70.61     7.11    14.33     1.94     8.28    50.48    19.57P    0.08R    0.00  
Plymouth         26   38   +6      69.05     7.09    11.43     1.31     5.40    41.67    15.38P    0.18R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   26   38   +4      66.47     6.86     5.80     0.53     2.64    27.02     9.15P    0.33R    0.01  
Hull             26   38   +3      66.74     7.09     4.95     0.76     3.00    28.42     9.32P    0.46R    0.03  
Wolverhampton    26   37   +1      64.46     7.00     1.83     0.30     1.37    18.05     5.76P    0.89R    0.09  
Cardiff          26   36   +1      63.65     7.01     1.05     0.23     1.08    15.48     4.73P    1.46R    0.15  
Burnley          26   34   -2      60.95     7.00    -2.99     0.07     0.39     8.73     2.29P    3.37R    0.41  
Blackpool        26   33   +3      60.17     6.92     2.61     0.05     0.33     7.79     2.33P    3.53R    0.43  
Barnsley         25   33   -3      61.04     7.32    -4.23     0.09     0.45     9.25     2.46P    4.41R    0.68  
Southampton      26   33   -9      56.04     6.75   -17.00     0.00     0.05     1.92     0.39P   13.12R    2.40  
Sheff_Utd        26   32   -1      59.68     6.96    -0.67     0.04     0.22     6.13     1.77P    4.89R    0.76  
Coventry         25   32  -11      56.83     7.10   -17.12     0.01     0.08     2.73     0.54P   12.60R    2.54  
QPR              26   30   -8      54.11     6.90   -13.10     0.00     0.02     1.13     0.28P   19.80R    4.52  
Sheff_Wed        25   28   -5      54.52     7.26    -8.06     0.01     0.04     1.70     0.43P   18.75R    4.41  
Norwich          26   28  -10      50.25     6.71   -17.20     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.05P   39.53R   12.41  
Leicester        26   27   -2      53.59     6.80    -2.72     0.00     0.01     0.85     0.21P   19.95R    4.75  
Scunthorpe       25   26  -12      49.04     7.00   -20.48     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   47.24R   17.40  
Colchester       26   25   -7      49.31     6.94   -12.96     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.06P   42.97R   15.72  
Preston          26   24   -8      45.39     6.58   -16.51     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   66.33R   33.27  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2008, Carlisle vs Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Swansea          22   44  +21      91.73     7.46    45.13    60.54    81.20    99.16    86.35P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         23   42  +14      82.50     7.42    28.41    11.78    32.54    90.46    45.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Nottm_Forest     23   41  +19      82.68     7.51    33.79    13.11    34.93    90.89    52.73P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            25   40  +26      83.48     6.57    50.11    12.43    40.27    94.82    61.48P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        24   38  +13      73.10     7.38    20.51     1.16     5.13    53.98    16.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          24   37   +8      71.74     7.17    15.01     0.50     2.59    45.46    12.47P    0.02R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    24   37   -2      63.74     7.13    -7.09     0.02     0.21    10.25     1.61P    0.68R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   35   -1      63.55     7.16    -2.75     0.03     0.21    10.09     1.82P    0.67R    0.00  
Tranmere         24   34   +5      66.87     7.32     9.31     0.10     0.61    21.77     5.15P    0.20R    0.00  
Brighton         23   33   +3      67.21     7.55     7.20     0.18     0.95    23.38     4.85P    0.30R    0.00  
Southend         24   33   -1      63.59     7.43    -0.49     0.03     0.25    10.67     1.74P    0.96R    0.01  
Swindon          23   31   +2      62.83     7.52     2.87     0.02     0.23    10.27     1.96P    1.24R    0.02  
Oldham           23   31   +2      66.83     7.67     8.63     0.09     0.66    22.60     5.21P    0.41R    0.01  
Huddersfield     24   30  -14      51.17     6.86   -28.32     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.02P   25.29R    1.08  
Hartlepool       24   29   +0      62.79     7.41     5.86     0.01     0.16     9.74     1.86P    1.45R    0.02  
Northampton      25   28   -8      52.13     6.92   -15.55     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P   18.91R    0.83  
Crewe            24   28  -13      47.67     6.63   -31.47     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   44.88R    3.73  
Gillingham       23   27  -12      52.94     7.29   -21.54     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.07P   19.12R    1.00  
Bristol_Rovers   22   26   -3      58.16     7.77    -3.56     0.00     0.04     3.56     0.67P    5.91R    0.23  
Millwall         23   26   -8      51.32     7.29   -17.56     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P   23.67R    1.68  
Luton            23   23   +1      54.84     7.64     1.66     0.00     0.01     1.38     0.31P   12.06R    0.55  
Cheltenham       23   21  -17      41.21     6.91   -34.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    77.61R   20.82  
Bournemouth      24   20  -17      42.03     6.82   -32.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.69R   18.00  
Port_Vale        25   17  -18      36.02     6.38   -33.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.92R   52.01  

Adjustments:
Leeds            -15
Luton            -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2008, Accrington_Stanley vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Milton_Keynes_Dons   25   57  +28     102.70     6.36    54.61    83.40    98.48    99.99    98.93P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford             24   46  +17      85.68     7.30    31.84     2.85    41.53    94.08    56.28P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   46  +15      85.05     7.41    28.37     2.35    36.88    92.38    52.33P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   43  +15      79.51     7.56    24.90     0.59    15.40    77.19    30.92P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         24   43  +14      83.59     7.25    30.99     1.69    30.55    90.75    46.53P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           22   40  +21      90.33     7.38    47.03     9.02    69.70    98.07    81.19P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              24   40   +4      70.74     7.44     5.09     0.04     1.76    30.90     7.36P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            24   39   +5      73.69     7.34    11.92     0.04     3.07    47.68    11.77P    0.00     0.00  
Chester              24   36   +3      66.80     7.39     3.44     0.00     0.45    15.74     3.14P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport            25   36   +1      65.40     7.24     1.24     0.00     0.23    11.23     1.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             22   35   +4      69.92     8.21     6.83     0.04     1.80    30.10     7.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   34   +2      63.34     7.15     2.83     0.00     0.11     7.26     1.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   33   -9      56.98     7.01   -17.52     0.00     0.01     1.16     0.19P    0.36R    0.03  
Brentford            25   32  -10      55.96     6.92   -17.77     0.00     0.01     0.71     0.09P    0.46R    0.05  
Grimsby              25   30   -8      55.71     6.83   -12.82     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.09P    0.62R    0.08  
Barnet               23   29   -6      53.10     7.28   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.10P    1.68R    0.19  
Bradford             23   27   -4      56.31     7.66    -7.32     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.26P    0.71R    0.09  
Bury                 23   24   -4      51.00     7.50   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    3.30R    0.53  
Notts_County         24   23  -10      48.23     7.35   -17.13     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    6.93R    1.34  
Macclesfield         25   23  -14      46.57     6.93   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.15R    2.20  
Lincoln_City         25   22  -15      43.23     6.70   -27.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.23R    5.56  
Dag_&_Red            24   21  -19      38.44     6.46   -40.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.73R   18.42  
Mansfield            22   16   -7      46.81     7.90    -9.97     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   12.08R    3.41  
Wrexham              23   15  -23      31.49     6.24   -46.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.73R   68.11  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2008, Droylsden vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                   -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team               Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Aldershot           26   61  +23      97.73     6.81    39.05    36.88    98.59    50.52P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay             24   54  +24      98.37     6.94    51.52    45.36    98.73    58.25P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage           25   52  +27      91.84     6.96    45.73    13.22    92.62    36.99P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion       24   45  +17      84.29     7.31    31.89     1.97    66.45    18.63P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd       24   45  +13      85.48     7.26    29.17     2.38    71.46    21.33P    0.00     0.00  
Histon              27   44   +8      73.31     6.53    12.98     0.02     9.37     1.83P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green        25   42   +9      74.04     7.16    13.60     0.03    13.85     2.31P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United    26   42   +7      71.55     6.89    10.27     0.01     7.06     1.49P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town        25   41  +12      73.73     7.18    17.84     0.04    13.48     2.88P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter              24   40  +10      76.16     7.27    20.29     0.08    22.02     4.63P    0.00     0.00  
York                26   38   +0      63.63     6.72    -3.94     0.00     0.56     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster       25   37   +2      68.14     7.00     5.47     0.00     3.00     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd          25   36   +1      64.71     7.01     1.10     0.00     0.92     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Grays_Athletic      25   36   +1      65.34     7.11     2.42     0.00     1.30     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury           26   35   -1      62.33     6.82    -1.37     0.00     0.36     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds   26   31   +4      60.15     6.85     6.93     0.00     0.17     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Woking              27   31   -5      55.36     6.43    -6.58     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Halifax             25   29   -2      55.58     7.05    -5.59     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Weymouth            24   23  -11      49.36     7.23   -18.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60R    0.01  
Farsley_Celtic      25   20  -23      38.78     6.41   -41.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.60R    0.71  
Altrincham          25   18  -25      34.32     6.10   -50.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.81R    3.30  
Northwich           26   13  -31      26.53     5.45   -55.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.05R   28.82  
Stafford_Rangers    26   10  -28      26.11     5.86   -46.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.25R   30.31  
Droylsden           25   10  -32      25.66     5.89   -58.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.65R   36.85