Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 19 October 2007 at 21:34:02 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2007, Arsenal vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Arsenal          8   22  +13      83.70     9.76    53.30    47.18    67.63    79.92    87.81    96.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          9   20   +9      75.92     9.35    31.86    14.24    33.21    51.44    67.06    87.33     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         9   19   +7      74.03    10.48    34.99    12.01    29.66    45.39    59.15    80.44     0.02R    0.00  
Liverpool        8   16  +10      75.11    10.07    40.05    14.59    32.98    49.93    64.17    84.43     0.00R    0.00  
Portsmouth       9   15   +5      65.13    11.09    27.13     2.80     8.67    17.39    28.34    52.58     0.10R    0.00  
Blackburn        8   15   +3      64.82    11.08    18.71     2.64     8.33    16.37    26.41    49.89     0.08R    0.01  
Chelsea          9   15   +0      55.08    11.12     2.20     0.35     1.40     3.37     6.58    18.28     0.86R    0.04  
Aston_Villa      8   14   +4      67.40    10.99    28.12     4.65    12.58    23.22    35.33    60.60     0.06R    0.00  
Newcastle        8   14   +3      57.07    11.64     8.04     0.86     2.98     6.25    11.14    25.80     1.03R    0.06  
Everton          9   13   +1      54.69    10.75     5.56     0.40     1.32     3.11     6.23    17.82     1.05R    0.08  
West_Ham         8   10   +1      52.86    11.32     5.81     0.23     1.02     2.73     5.36    15.24     1.72R    0.18  
Reading          9   10   -8      31.37     9.14   -50.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.16    46.70R   10.52  
Birmingham       9    8   -4      36.75    10.67   -25.49     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.20     1.01    25.78R    4.88  
Wigan            9    8   -4      38.40    10.16   -19.18     0.00     0.03     0.09     0.24     1.14    18.97R    3.25  
Middlesbrough    9    8   -6      36.90     9.98   -28.22     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.10     0.57    24.47R    4.83  
Sunderland       9    8   -6      38.67    10.20   -24.31     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.17     1.10    18.58R    3.22  
Tottenham        9    7   -2      47.40    10.78    -2.12     0.03     0.16     0.57     1.51     6.38     5.07R    0.56  
Fulham           9    7   -4      40.62     9.93   -15.20     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.18     1.20    13.48R    2.02  
Bolton           9    5   -5      28.64     8.71   -32.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    55.94R   15.10  
Derby            9    5  -17      21.18     7.55   -58.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.09R   55.27  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 8 October 2007, QPR vs Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Watford          10   23   +6      77.67    13.34    14.06    10.27    19.55    51.00    25.98P    0.15R    0.00  
Charlton         10   19   +6      82.40    13.78    30.00    18.86    32.23    65.90    40.97P    0.11R    0.00  
West_Brom        10   17  +10      85.62    12.59    43.20    25.02    41.14    75.89    51.66P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_City     10   17   +4      72.10    13.40    13.27     4.40    10.28    36.41    17.35P    0.63R    0.02  
Stoke            10   17   +3      78.16    13.21    21.94     9.66    20.06    53.98    29.60P    0.22R    0.01  
Barnsley         10   16   +2      76.46    13.13    21.05     7.64    16.74    49.03    24.28P    0.24R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    10   15   +2      67.13    13.66     7.11     2.33     5.75    24.29    10.89P    1.69R    0.12  
Coventry         10   15   +0      68.53    13.52     6.77     2.89     6.78    27.13    11.24P    1.35R    0.06  
Plymouth         10   14   +2      68.51    13.61    10.40     2.80     6.92    27.85    12.34P    1.56R    0.10  
Ipswich           9   14   +0      67.59    14.36     4.42     3.03     7.00    26.57    10.88P    2.31R    0.18  
Scunthorpe       10   14   -1      65.39    13.59     2.54     1.58     4.26    20.27     7.85P    2.46R    0.19  
Burnley           9   13   +1      68.95    14.30     9.79     3.58     8.38    29.69    13.22P    1.83R    0.13  
Cardiff          10   13   +1      62.26    13.60     0.22     0.94     2.64    15.18     5.51P    4.02R    0.25  
Southampton      10   13   -4      55.08    13.12   -23.60     0.32     0.91     6.14     1.81P   10.13R    1.04  
Hull             10   12   +0      60.91    14.36    -1.44     1.00     2.67    14.32     5.50P    6.02R    0.66  
Blackpool        10   12   -1      62.61    13.53     0.81     1.06     2.90    15.37     5.82P    4.09R    0.41  
Colchester       10   11   +2      63.78    13.29     6.94     1.12     3.26    17.72     6.84P    2.80R    0.23  
Leicester         9   11   +2      65.00    15.15     7.44     2.56     5.81    22.73    11.07P    3.91R    0.31  
Crystal_Palace   10   10   +0      59.13    13.37     0.31     0.56     1.49    10.08     3.94P    5.99R    0.59  
Sheff_Utd        10    9   -3      56.79    13.18    -7.88     0.30     0.96     7.42     2.27P    8.95R    1.12  
Preston          10    9   -3      49.92    12.81   -15.75     0.07     0.28     2.78     0.94P   18.13R    2.56  
Norwich          10    8   -6      34.56    10.40   -35.92     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   69.65R   19.71  
Sheff_Wed        10    6  -11      32.21    11.48   -53.29     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   74.78R   33.30  
QPR               9    6  -12      30.90    11.25   -62.38     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   78.96R   38.99  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 15 October 2007, Luton vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Swansea          11   20   +9      91.50    11.44    52.11    18.90    38.59    86.10    51.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         11   20   +6      79.00    12.08    23.12     3.20     9.25    50.93    19.07P    0.04R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    11   20   -2      67.29    11.94    -4.65     0.29     1.22    16.51     3.05P    1.05R    0.03  
Nottm_Forest     10   19  +12      95.39    11.79    57.04    31.57    53.67    90.78    66.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend         11   19   +4      70.41    12.52     8.30     0.81     2.65    25.64     6.03P    0.63R    0.03  
Carlisle         11   18   +7      78.41    12.35    27.80     3.09     8.51    50.23    18.11P    0.13R    0.00  
Hartlepool       11   17   +4      81.73    12.11    34.43     4.75    12.96    61.40    22.83P    0.06R    0.00  
Brighton         11   17   +3      65.63    12.38     4.49     0.34     1.17    15.06     4.17P    1.39R    0.07  
Yeovil           11   17   -1      67.04    12.53     3.30     0.36     1.32    17.23     4.73P    1.43R    0.06  
Swindon          10   16   +8      75.11    13.17    23.84     2.35     6.51    40.67    14.10P    0.30R    0.01  
Walsall          11   15   +0      61.56    12.39    -2.35     0.09     0.44     8.85     1.90P    3.59R    0.20  
Leeds            11   14  +15      96.68     9.47    72.98    33.77    61.56    96.05    79.23P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        11   14   +1      57.47    11.71    -6.32     0.03     0.17     4.36     0.93P    5.69R    0.39  
Luton            11   14   +1      64.63    12.56     4.59     0.21     0.93    13.57     3.35P    2.17R    0.18  
Northampton      11   13   -1      55.20    12.24   -15.26     0.03     0.14     3.53     0.69P    9.62R    0.96  
Huddersfield     11   13   -9      39.42    10.28   -49.29     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   53.46R   12.33  
Bristol_Rovers   11   12   -3      60.93    12.75    -1.34     0.07     0.33     8.54     1.90P    4.89R    0.40  
Gillingham       11   11  -13      40.34    10.84   -48.13     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P   49.92R   12.11  
Oldham            9   10   -2      61.07    13.52    -1.46     0.13     0.57     9.58     2.32P    5.72R    0.61  
Crewe            11   10   -8      39.85    10.65   -41.15     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   50.59R   12.56  
Millwall         11    9   -8      34.67     9.63   -42.27     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   70.04R   24.13  
Cheltenham       11    9   -9      38.08    10.89   -41.67     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   57.29R   17.04  
Port_Vale        11    8   -5      44.32    11.49   -21.34     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.08P   33.84R    6.75  
Bournemouth      11    8   -9      40.32    10.96   -36.76     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   48.15R   12.13  

Adjustments:
Leeds            -15


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 19 October 2007, Accrington_Stanley vs Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Milton_Keynes_Dons   11   25  +15      96.36    11.56    57.17    32.38    69.48    94.44    76.13P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           11   22  +15      96.95    10.64    56.12    32.66    72.87    96.05    82.29P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         11   21  +10      86.05    11.80    39.15     8.69    35.27    79.65    47.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Hereford             11   21   +9      85.60    12.24    37.53     8.89    33.82    78.04    45.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Chester              11   21   +8      86.58    12.03    36.83     9.63    36.53    80.41    49.05P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         11   20   +6      81.23    12.27    28.52     4.11    21.57    65.89    31.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               11   19   +5      74.61    12.64    17.34     1.60     9.82    44.62    18.51P    0.05R    0.01  
Accrington_Stanley   12   18   -1      57.19    11.69   -14.44     0.03     0.37     6.09     1.37P    1.68R    0.38  
Wycombe              11   17   +1      65.29    12.52     2.24     0.18     2.27    19.30     6.09P    0.43R    0.12  
Morecambe            11   16   +1      64.35    12.54     2.66     0.14     1.69    17.22     5.26P    0.55R    0.14  
Rotherham            11   15   +0      64.41    12.89     2.45     0.18     2.16    18.17     5.74P    0.76R    0.22  
Bury                 11   15   -1      60.34    12.55    -5.29     0.04     0.90    11.06     2.86P    1.39R    0.42  
Shrewsbury           11   14   -1      62.56    12.51    -0.59     0.09     1.33    14.00     3.61P    0.98R    0.29  
Macclesfield         12   13   -1      66.32    12.24    10.44     0.15     2.13    21.47     6.21P    0.44R    0.11  
Rochdale             10   13   -2      72.78    13.86    16.46     1.19     9.14    40.47    15.56P    0.33R    0.11  
Stockport            11   13   -6      47.91    12.09   -33.91     0.00     0.09     1.72     0.32P   11.19R    4.36  
Brentford            11   12   -5      50.99    12.22   -20.26     0.01     0.13     2.73     0.59P    7.08R    2.64  
Dag_&_Red            11   12   -8      40.87    10.89   -41.80     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.05P   25.62R   11.31  
Notts_County         11   11   -6      53.01    13.02   -16.91     0.02     0.28     4.62     1.07P    6.67R    2.64  
Grimsby              11   10   -5      49.05    11.73   -20.19     0.00     0.06     1.51     0.37P    9.07R    3.34  
Bradford             11   10   -7      47.37    12.29   -25.11     0.00     0.06     1.56     0.34P   12.55R    5.29  
Wrexham              10    9   -8      41.36    11.90   -37.38     0.00     0.02     0.47     0.09P   26.93R   12.80  
Lincoln_City         11    8  -10      33.22    10.38   -49.92     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   54.41R   33.33  
Mansfield            11    5   -9      36.90    11.51   -41.08     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.04P   39.86R   22.48  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 18 October 2007, Stevenage vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                   -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team               Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Torquay             16   36  +19      95.82     9.50    56.94    39.95    90.20    51.14P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion       17   34  +13      86.28     9.46    33.93     8.42    63.23    22.70P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot           16   34  +11      88.68     9.75    33.30    13.01    71.91    25.80P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage           17   33  +17      92.09     8.74    51.28    21.27    85.33    41.99P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd       16   31  +11      87.16     9.84    36.80    11.43    66.42    27.00P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green        16   30   +8      80.72     9.94    24.75     3.07    40.67    10.03P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town        16   27   +7      76.90    10.03    20.40     1.34    26.58     7.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter              16   26   +5      69.64     9.95     8.56     0.30     9.31     2.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Histon              16   25   +6      74.13     9.98    19.09     0.73    18.86     5.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United    16   25   +1      69.29     9.96     5.92     0.20     8.08     2.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Kidderminster       16   24   +2      65.26    10.02     0.29     0.08     4.57     0.91P    0.08R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd          16   24   +2      68.62     9.97     7.44     0.11     7.35     1.79P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury           16   22   +0      60.45     9.96    -5.66     0.01     1.55     0.27P    0.31R    0.00  
Halifax             16   19   +1      58.49    10.14    -2.20     0.02     1.22     0.33P    0.64R    0.01  
Weymouth            16   19   -1      62.24    10.20     1.91     0.03     2.40     0.52P    0.36R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds   16   19   -1      59.35     9.90    -1.51     0.01     1.16     0.31P    0.44R    0.00  
Woking              16   19   -2      55.78     9.96    -9.05     0.00     0.54     0.13P    1.12R    0.01  
York                16   18   -6      54.73     9.77   -15.85     0.00     0.31     0.06P    1.69R    0.02  
Grays_Athletic      16   17   -2      54.44     9.60    -4.97     0.00     0.28     0.08P    1.25R    0.01  
Farsley_Celtic      15   15  -10      45.25     9.72   -32.27     0.00     0.04     0.01P   11.77R    0.27  
Altrincham          15   11  -13      39.17     9.40   -42.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.78R    2.04  
Stafford_Rangers    16    7  -16      31.41     8.47   -43.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.55R    9.41  
Droylsden           16    5  -26      24.21     7.69   -72.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.40R   32.28  
Northwich           16    3  -26      20.57     7.21   -70.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.54R   55.96