Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 18 October 2007 at 21:33:46 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2007, Arsenal vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Arsenal          8   22  +13      83.55     9.76    52.89    47.16    67.49    79.88    87.83    95.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          9   20   +9      76.38     9.12    32.22    14.87    35.42    54.04    69.40    88.88     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         9   19   +7      74.61    10.44    35.84    13.46    31.60    48.30    62.36    82.66     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool        8   16  +10      74.23    10.16    38.70    13.57    30.62    46.81    61.20    82.43     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth       9   15   +5      64.64    11.25    26.03     2.66     8.75    17.44    28.02    51.49     0.15R    0.00  
Blackburn        8   15   +3      64.06    10.94    17.41     2.00     6.81    13.96    23.67    47.62     0.11R    0.01  
Chelsea          9   15   +0      54.44    11.17     1.35     0.37     1.31     3.12     6.13    17.52     1.05R    0.07  
Aston_Villa      8   14   +4      67.46    10.82    28.45     4.52    12.74    23.72    36.15    61.15     0.06R    0.00  
Newcastle        8   14   +3      57.10    11.46     8.07     0.82     2.73     6.03    10.87    25.84     0.99R    0.06  
Everton          9   13   +1      54.86    10.69     5.92     0.35     1.34     3.23     6.33    18.39     0.80R    0.05  
West_Ham         8   10   +1      53.32    11.08     6.50     0.20     0.94     2.55     5.46    16.21     1.52R    0.12  
Reading          9   10   -8      31.66     9.38   -50.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.21    45.87R   10.57  
Birmingham       9    8   -4      36.94    10.56   -25.01     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.17     0.88    25.53R    4.67  
Wigan            9    8   -4      38.48    10.25   -18.93     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.19     1.02    19.83R    3.49  
Middlesbrough    9    8   -6      37.38    10.02   -26.96     0.01     0.01     0.03     0.12     0.71    23.22R    4.32  
Sunderland       9    8   -6      38.75    10.16   -24.02     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.22     1.22    18.42R    3.00  
Tottenham        9    7   -2      47.29    10.76    -2.37     0.02     0.17     0.62     1.60     6.33     5.42R    0.46  
Fulham           9    7   -4      40.61     9.99   -15.13     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.24     1.39    13.84R    1.82  
Bolton           9    5   -5      28.91     8.85   -31.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05    55.48R   14.43  
Derby            9    5  -17      20.83     7.36   -58.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.71R   56.93  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 8 October 2007, QPR vs Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Watford          10   23   +6      77.61    13.50    13.97    10.47    19.83    51.43    26.33P    0.18R    0.00  
Charlton         10   19   +6      82.64    13.72    30.44    19.72    33.27    66.53    42.07P    0.12R    0.01  
West_Brom        10   17  +10      85.08    12.67    42.32    23.59    39.72    74.80    50.31P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_City     10   17   +4      71.55    13.64    12.35     4.51    10.27    35.29    17.01P    0.74R    0.03  
Stoke            10   17   +3      78.15    13.43    21.99     9.83    20.13    54.46    29.64P    0.26R    0.01  
Barnsley         10   16   +2      76.41    13.04    20.94     7.35    16.32    49.35    24.20P    0.38R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    10   15   +2      66.52    13.72     6.20     2.17     5.41    22.96    10.08P    2.09R    0.16  
Coventry         10   15   +0      68.68    13.79     7.05     3.14     7.38    28.48    12.03P    1.69R    0.13  
Plymouth         10   14   +2      68.37    13.82    10.28     3.11     7.17    27.70    12.46P    1.74R    0.10  
Ipswich           9   14   +0      67.49    14.57     4.21     3.25     7.32    26.63    11.29P    2.55R    0.18  
Scunthorpe       10   14   -1      64.95    13.89     1.82     1.50     4.14    20.20     7.94P    2.96R    0.17  
Burnley           9   13   +1      68.84    14.23     9.53     3.76     8.42    29.75    13.37P    1.74R    0.11  
Cardiff          10   13   +1      62.23    13.58     0.05     1.05     2.79    14.97     5.54P    4.22R    0.31  
Southampton      10   13   -4      55.71    13.20   -22.43     0.27     0.91     6.72     1.85P   10.12R    0.98  
Hull             10   12   +0      61.06    14.09    -1.14     0.95     2.66    14.37     5.38P    5.55R    0.50  
Blackpool        10   12   -1      62.60    13.45     0.85     0.98     2.79    15.25     5.86P    4.04R    0.38  
Colchester       10   11   +2      63.65    13.22     6.47     1.12     3.11    17.16     6.33P    3.06R    0.23  
Leicester         9   11   +2      65.45    14.65     8.31     2.33     5.49    22.86    10.73P    3.31R    0.22  
Crystal_Palace   10   10   +0      59.91    13.19     1.60     0.53     1.73    11.22     4.50P    5.23R    0.60  
Sheff_Utd        10    9   -3      56.42    13.16    -8.66     0.27     0.86     7.12     2.22P    9.48R    1.18  
Preston          10    9   -3      49.51    12.76   -16.40     0.08     0.25     2.44     0.77P   19.79R    2.71  
Norwich          10    8   -6      35.34    10.80   -34.70     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P   66.88R   18.77  
Sheff_Wed        10    6  -11      32.04    11.58   -53.65     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.03P   75.61R   34.98  
QPR               9    6  -12      31.20    11.13   -61.39     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   78.24R   38.19  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 15 October 2007, Luton vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Swansea          11   20   +9      91.44    11.31    51.93    17.89    37.43    86.42    50.68P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         11   20   +6      78.80    12.33    22.81     3.26     9.12    50.40    19.09P    0.08R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    11   20   -2      67.38    11.82    -4.60     0.24     1.01    16.54     2.91P    1.03R    0.05  
Nottm_Forest     10   19  +12      95.90    11.76    57.89    32.96    55.52    91.21    67.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend         11   19   +4      70.13    12.79     7.83     0.82     2.88    25.63     6.34P    0.86R    0.04  
Carlisle         11   18   +7      78.37    12.34    27.60     3.05     8.58    49.98    18.09P    0.14R    0.00  
Hartlepool       11   17   +4      81.73    12.14    34.53     4.77    12.64    60.81    22.36P    0.07R    0.00  
Brighton         11   17   +3      65.33    12.36     3.87     0.27     0.99    14.61     3.87P    1.53R    0.10  
Yeovil           11   17   -1      66.92    12.76     3.21     0.41     1.49    17.33     4.77P    1.47R    0.07  
Swindon          10   16   +8      75.31    13.06    24.22     2.10     6.27    41.24    14.23P    0.37R    0.02  
Walsall          11   15   +0      61.69    12.17    -2.31     0.10     0.46     8.54     1.90P    3.37R    0.21  
Leeds            11   14  +15      96.70     9.41    73.49    33.58    61.22    96.09    78.72P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        11   14   +1      57.23    11.64    -6.88     0.01     0.12     3.98     0.78P    5.68R    0.37  
Luton            11   14   +1      64.60    12.69     4.50     0.24     0.97    13.92     3.36P    2.40R    0.13  
Northampton      11   13   -1      54.58    12.23   -16.55     0.03     0.16     3.23     0.57P   10.66R    1.12  
Huddersfield     11   13   -9      39.70    10.40   -48.73     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   52.41R   11.88  
Bristol_Rovers   11   12   -3      61.42    12.60    -0.53     0.07     0.38     8.77     1.96P    4.13R    0.33  
Gillingham       11   11  -13      41.00    11.06   -47.14     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.02P   47.90R   11.36  
Oldham            9   10   -2      61.48    13.60    -0.78     0.20     0.76    10.28     2.48P    5.35R    0.52  
Crewe            11   10   -8      40.02    10.87   -41.15     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   50.35R   12.72  
Millwall         11    9   -8      34.49     9.70   -42.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    71.21R   24.84  
Cheltenham       11    9   -9      38.06    10.97   -41.51     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   57.23R   17.19  
Port_Vale        11    8   -5      43.82    11.23   -22.36     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P   35.08R    6.77  
Bournemouth      11    8   -9      40.16    10.98   -36.84     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   48.69R   12.27  

Adjustments:
Leeds            -15


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 October 2007, Dag_&_Red vs Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Milton_Keynes_Dons   11   25  +15      96.30    11.64    57.38    31.64    68.61    93.89    74.95P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           11   22  +15      97.46    10.60    57.33    34.05    73.44    96.06    82.31P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         11   21  +10      86.34    11.63    39.69     8.35    34.89    79.79    46.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Hereford             11   21   +9      85.71    12.22    37.91     8.64    33.55    77.23    44.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Chester              11   21   +8      87.00    11.87    37.62     9.48    36.75    80.87    49.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         11   20   +6      80.79    12.63    27.71     3.94    20.38    62.92    30.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               11   19   +5      74.26    12.62    16.73     1.40     9.05    41.87    17.02P    0.05R    0.01  
Wycombe              11   17   +1      65.13    12.43     1.94     0.24     2.17    17.42     5.56P    0.50R    0.13  
Morecambe            11   16   +1      64.76    12.54     3.17     0.17     1.92    17.49     5.76P    0.42R    0.10  
Rotherham            11   15   +0      65.63    12.86     4.46     0.17     2.37    19.78     6.31P    0.47R    0.10  
Bury                 11   15   -1      60.46    12.51    -5.13     0.06     0.96    10.46     2.89P    1.25R    0.38  
Accrington_Stanley   11   15   -2      51.43    12.00   -21.90     0.00     0.16     2.62     0.58P    5.65R    1.79  
Shrewsbury           11   14   -1      62.14    12.68    -1.50     0.08     1.14    13.17     3.30P    1.12R    0.35  
Macclesfield         11   13   +0      70.79    12.87    16.68     0.52     4.92    33.33    11.60P    0.24R    0.07  
Rochdale             10   13   -2      73.29    13.80    17.51     1.23     9.11    40.98    15.61P    0.27R    0.07  
Stockport            11   13   -6      48.37    11.95   -32.97     0.00     0.07     1.61     0.29P    9.85R    3.81  
Brentford            11   12   -5      51.11    12.07   -20.01     0.00     0.11     2.65     0.60P    6.30R    2.25  
Dag_&_Red            11   12   -8      40.39    10.75   -42.87     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P   25.69R   11.44  
Notts_County         11   11   -6      53.47    12.66   -16.16     0.01     0.25     4.28     1.04P    5.12R    1.93  
Grimsby              11   10   -5      48.72    11.92   -20.95     0.00     0.07     1.55     0.38P    9.48R    3.54  
Bradford             11   10   -7      46.84    12.06   -26.06     0.00     0.04     1.12     0.21P   12.55R    4.91  
Wrexham              10    9   -8      41.94    12.22   -36.83     0.00     0.03     0.57     0.15P   24.67R   12.00  
Lincoln_City         11    8  -10      32.53    10.19   -51.41     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   56.01R   34.48  
Mansfield            11    5   -9      36.42    11.38   -42.31     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.03P   40.35R   22.64  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 18 October 2007, Stevenage vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                   -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team               Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Torquay             16   36  +19      95.93     9.49    57.21    40.34    90.67    51.72P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion       17   34  +13      86.03     9.28    33.52     7.41    63.18    21.36P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot           16   34  +11      88.23     9.74    32.46    11.93    70.13    24.68P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage           17   33  +17      92.42     8.80    51.88    22.31    86.12    43.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd       16   31  +11      87.18     9.87    36.82    11.57    66.77    27.10P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green        16   30   +8      80.77    10.04    24.91     3.44    40.90    10.69P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town        16   27   +7      76.82    10.09    20.24     1.59    26.35     7.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter              16   26   +5      69.36    10.05     8.09     0.29     9.09     2.12P    0.03R    0.00  
Histon              16   25   +6      73.99    10.04    18.77     0.68    18.64     4.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United    16   25   +1      69.35    10.01     5.96     0.18     8.52     2.11P    0.04R    0.00  
Kidderminster       16   24   +2      65.35    10.00     0.46     0.08     4.53     0.83P    0.09R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd          16   24   +2      68.85     9.90     7.80     0.10     7.50     1.70P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury           16   22   +0      60.75     9.91    -5.21     0.03     1.63     0.29P    0.32R    0.00  
Halifax             16   19   +1      58.27    10.08    -2.61     0.01     1.04     0.25P    0.62R    0.00  
Weymouth            16   19   -1      62.36    10.30     2.10     0.02     2.60     0.55P    0.31R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds   16   19   -1      59.64     9.91    -1.10     0.00     1.11     0.27P    0.44R    0.00  
Woking              16   19   -2      55.79     9.84    -9.02     0.00     0.50     0.10P    1.13R    0.01  
York                16   18   -6      54.56     9.88   -15.98     0.01     0.38     0.07P    1.69R    0.02  
Grays_Athletic      16   17   -2      54.43     9.61    -5.01     0.00     0.28     0.08P    1.17R    0.01  
Farsley_Celtic      15   15  -10      45.28     9.78   -32.24     0.00     0.05     0.00P   11.71R    0.40  
Altrincham          15   11  -13      38.75     9.49   -43.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.12R    2.50  
Stafford_Rangers    16    7  -16      31.36     8.52   -43.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.22R    9.81  
Droylsden           16    5  -26      24.24     7.69   -72.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.46R   33.37  
Northwich           16    3  -26      21.03     7.31   -69.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.62R   53.87