Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 5 October 2007 at 21:31:21 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 October 2007, Tottenham vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Arsenal          7   19  +12      84.36     9.79    57.18    47.09    71.61    84.28    91.05    97.08     0.00     0.00  
Man._Utd.        8   17   +5      66.49     9.89    18.56     2.39     8.48    18.84    32.51    60.02     0.01R    0.00  
Man._City        8   16   +5      74.33    10.66    38.54    11.27    30.68    50.57    65.07    83.67     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool        7   15  +10      81.27     9.42    50.66    31.20    59.71    76.88    87.22    95.71     0.00     0.00  
Everton          8   13   +2      56.84    11.13     9.24     0.76     2.63     6.04    11.49    27.55     0.56R    0.02  
Portsmouth       8   12   +3      58.90    11.80    16.25     0.87     3.63     9.34    17.00    35.91     0.77R    0.04  
Blackburn        7   12   +2      63.46    11.87    19.58     2.33     7.37    16.48    27.94    50.77     0.32R    0.01  
Chelsea          8   12   -1      51.52    11.32    -1.12     0.12     0.67     2.05     4.53    14.45     2.62R    0.19  
Aston_Villa      7   11   +3      65.59    11.33    30.20     2.67     9.77    21.32    34.10    58.35     0.20R    0.02  
Newcastle        7   11   +2      56.44    11.86    10.68     0.64     2.25     5.71    11.38    28.14     1.48R    0.14  
West_Ham         7   10   +2      56.29    11.88    11.14     0.56     2.54     6.34    12.27    28.18     1.31R    0.09  
Wigan            8    8   +0      46.44    10.75    -1.88     0.07     0.33     0.95     2.23     6.70     5.36R    0.57  
Birmingham       8    8   -3      36.31    11.04   -26.84     0.01     0.04     0.15     0.34     1.57    28.16R    5.29  
Middlesbrough    8    8   -4      38.26    10.73   -25.36     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.34     1.56    22.22R    5.02  
Sunderland       8    8   -5      34.04    10.05   -36.41     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.57    34.89R    8.30  
Fulham           8    7   -2      45.60    11.09    -5.96     0.02     0.17     0.63     1.73     6.37     7.97R    1.02  
Reading          8    7   -9      31.24     9.91   -54.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.26    47.44R   14.88  
Tottenham        8    6   -2      41.28    11.06   -17.93     0.01     0.10     0.28     0.72     3.06    15.01R    2.23  
Bolton           8    5   -4      30.11     9.13   -31.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.07    49.98R   12.03  
Derby            8    5  -16      22.21     8.33   -61.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    81.72R   50.16  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 October 2007, WBA vs Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Watford           9   20   +4      69.43    13.95     1.05     2.54     6.75    27.96    11.12P    0.98R    0.04  
Charlton          9   18   +6      84.63    14.99    34.60    19.79    34.36    68.64    43.05P    0.23R    0.04  
WBA               9   17  +11      93.94    12.59    57.51    42.04    61.27    89.50    70.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley          9   15   +2      75.99    13.39    19.65     4.70    12.49    45.98    20.04P    0.46R    0.01  
Coventry          9   15   +1      69.93    14.32     8.18     2.65     6.57    30.41    11.59P    1.54R    0.07  
Bristol_C.        9   14   +2      69.57    14.65    10.00     2.36     6.97    29.73    12.96P    1.58R    0.09  
Stoke             9   14   +2      75.55    14.45    19.76     5.38    13.52    45.48    22.64P    0.66R    0.04  
Scunthorpe        9   14   +1      74.52    14.28    17.69     4.03    11.05    42.39    19.16P    0.72R    0.02  
Burnley           8   13   +2      75.45    15.17    21.17     6.07    14.99    45.58    22.14P    0.85R    0.05  
Plymouth          9   13   +2      67.11    14.77     7.07     1.93     5.74    24.70    10.29P    2.50R    0.14  
Wolves            9   12   +1      64.71    14.26     4.83     1.28     3.64    19.57     7.79P    2.83R    0.25  
Colchester        9   11   +3      66.01    13.90     9.46     1.10     3.55    21.93     7.88P    2.40R    0.13  
Hull              9   11   +0      60.89    14.93    -1.98     0.79     2.52    14.38     5.54P    6.17R    0.66  
Blackpool         9   11   -1      63.18    14.51     0.74     1.06     3.35    16.70     6.64P    4.36R    0.41  
Ipswich           8   11   -1      67.31    15.11     6.38     2.15     5.88    25.43    10.05P    2.85R    0.18  
Cardiff           9   10   +0      57.39    14.84    -6.89     0.47     1.55    10.52     3.88P    9.28R    0.76  
Southampton       9   10   -5      48.32    13.47   -38.27     0.10     0.28     2.47     0.63P   23.72R    3.17  
Crystal_Palace    9    9   +0      60.53    13.63     1.90     0.41     1.60    11.70     4.36P    4.83R    0.27  
Sheffield_Utd.    9    9   -1      59.31    13.98    -4.15     0.38     1.48    10.84     3.53P    6.53R    0.81  
Preston           9    9   -2      51.09    13.25   -15.61     0.09     0.35     3.46     1.07P   15.44R    2.09  
Leicester         8    8   +0      58.18    15.62    -1.96     0.69     2.07    12.08     4.93P    9.98R    1.06  
Norwich           9    8   -5      38.24    11.41   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   53.80R   11.71  
Sheffield_Wed.    9    6   -9      35.58    12.36   -47.58     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.05P   62.67R   21.42  
QPR               8    3  -13      26.58    11.02   -71.44     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    85.62R   56.59  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2007, Yeovil vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
              -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team          Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leyton          9   19   +3      73.91    13.55     8.39     2.53     7.37    40.18    13.00P    0.81R    0.02  
Tranmere        9   16   +5      80.54    14.33    27.41     6.45    17.24    60.30    28.74P    0.42R    0.04  
Southend        9   16   +2      73.46    14.01    12.50     2.02     7.36    39.92    13.55P    1.21R    0.04  
Carlisle        9   15   +4      72.21    13.71    14.26     1.95     5.76    36.55    13.37P    1.09R    0.05  
Hartlepool      9   14   +4      77.53    13.87    26.07     3.94    12.04    52.92    21.47P    0.66R    0.04  
Swansea         9   14   +1      71.99    14.62    12.61     1.96     6.47    37.44    13.88P    1.53R    0.07  
Yeovil          9   14   -1      62.92    13.57    -1.92     0.41     1.34    15.36     4.82P    5.20R    0.45  
Nott_Forest     8   13   +8      91.48    14.11    51.53    23.66    48.35    83.52    61.42P    0.07R    0.00  
Swindon         9   13   +3      67.24    14.72     7.79     1.42     4.28    26.14     9.31P    3.93R    0.34  
Brighton        9   13   +2      65.82    14.65     4.43     0.94     3.31    23.17     7.79P    4.67R    0.28  
Huddersfield    9   13   -3      49.92    14.12   -30.43     0.15     0.48     4.08     1.01P   29.20R    4.18  
Bristol_R.      9   11   -2      66.74    13.90     5.32     0.51     2.38    23.68     6.60P    3.93R    0.39  
Walsall         9   11   -4      49.87    12.98   -25.37     0.04     0.10     2.75     0.56P   26.91R    3.65  
Leeds           9   10  +14     100.04     9.89    82.86    52.85    78.91    97.87    89.15P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton     9   10   +1      59.14    14.11    -3.71     0.41     1.26    11.77     3.46P    9.99R    0.83  
Doncaster       9   10   -1      52.86    13.79   -16.86     0.07     0.31     5.26     1.33P   20.79R    2.87  
Luton           9   10   -2      59.87    13.93    -3.34     0.29     1.05    11.39     3.37P    9.28R    1.03  
Crewe           9   10   -2      56.17    13.44    -8.61     0.09     0.44     6.89     1.77P   13.87R    1.68  
Gillingham      9   10   -8      48.43    13.72   -29.03     0.03     0.12     3.05     0.69P   33.19R    5.87  
Oldham          8    9   -2      61.82    14.61    -1.14     0.28     1.36    15.01     4.12P    8.41R    0.95  
Port_Vale       9    8   -3      47.29    12.99   -19.64     0.00     0.04     1.81     0.41P   33.52R    6.13  
Millwall        9    8   -4      40.64    12.07   -28.61     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.07P   53.47R   14.14  
Cheltenham      9    8   -6      39.56    12.04   -39.34     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P   58.80R   16.88  
Bournemouth     9    5   -9      32.36    11.31   -45.17     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.03P   79.06R   40.08  

Adjustments:
Leeds          -15


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2007, Wrexham vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
              -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team          Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
MK_Dons         9   19  +10      94.62    12.83    56.94    32.55    65.23    91.08    71.53P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield    9   17   +9      88.44    13.68    44.67    18.62    46.78    80.27    55.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford        9   17   +7      82.03    14.23    32.48     8.91    29.27    65.84    37.30P    0.02R    0.01  
Chester         9   17   +6      82.94    13.73    30.60     8.51    30.56    67.97    40.72P    0.02R    0.01  
Darlington      9   16   +8      88.56    13.06    41.65    14.97    46.35    81.75    59.06P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet          9   15   +3      75.24    14.38    18.25     3.15    14.98    46.44    24.21P    0.17R    0.04  
Peterborough    9   14   +4      78.43    13.83    27.69     4.43    20.16    56.56    29.23P    0.04R    0.00  
Shrewsbury      9   14   +2      67.50    13.65     6.74     0.85     5.08    25.80     9.37P    0.44R    0.11  
Wycombe         9   14   +0      61.03    14.28    -4.69     0.29     2.45    14.77     5.14P    1.77R    0.57  
Stockport       9   13   +0      57.84    13.57   -11.81     0.23     1.35     9.48     2.94P    2.27R    0.48  
Morecambe       9   12   +0      65.40    14.16     5.24     0.56     4.12    21.89     8.58P    0.74R    0.14  
Accrington      9   12   -2      51.65    13.37   -20.94     0.09     0.55     4.49     1.29P    5.43R    1.89  
Dag_and_Red     9   12   -3      48.98    13.71   -27.06     0.03     0.41     3.67     1.06P    9.64R    3.71  
Rotherham       9   11   -1      65.74    14.82     6.14     0.91     4.93    23.35     9.16P    1.27R    0.31  
Notts_County    9   11   -2      64.15    14.41     2.52     0.62     3.80    19.80     7.34P    1.25R    0.41  
Brentford       9   11   -3      54.35    14.30   -17.04     0.12     1.05     7.18     2.10P    5.37R    1.93  
Rochdale        8   10   -2      76.43    15.83    25.57     4.74    19.03    50.68    25.66P    0.49R    0.12  
Grimsby         9   10   -3      50.54    13.50   -22.56     0.03     0.39     3.75     1.00P    7.92R    2.80  
Bradford        9   10   -5      44.87    12.70   -33.84     0.02     0.11     1.22     0.24P   15.38R    5.51  
Macclesfield    9    9   -1      64.95    13.82     7.90     0.33     3.15    20.67     7.44P    1.19R    0.45  
Bury            9    9   -4      48.38    13.06   -22.61     0.03     0.20     2.62     0.68P   10.21R    4.08  
Lincoln         9    7   -6      32.60    10.99   -52.07     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   51.26R   28.63  
Wrexham         8    6   -9      32.73    12.12   -52.96     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.03P   52.26R   32.95  
Mansfield       9    4   -8      37.86    12.43   -40.81     0.00     0.04     0.49     0.16P   32.86R   15.85  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 4 October 2007, Woking vs Farsley; Check up-to-date)
                 -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team             Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Torquay           13   32  +18      96.49    10.69    57.23    31.78    88.26    44.20P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot         13   31  +13      89.80    10.68    36.11    11.16    72.83    23.89P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage         13   28  +17      98.11    10.20    58.96    36.77    91.64    58.07P    0.00     0.00  
Burton            13   26  +10      82.61    11.10    29.23     3.81    48.09    14.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Cambridge         13   26  +10      90.64    10.79    44.16    12.97    76.11    31.18P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury         13   21   +3      66.65    11.28     4.24     0.09     7.21     1.53P    0.14R    0.00  
Forest_Green      13   21   +2      77.28    11.33    22.59     1.18    29.95     6.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town      13   20   +5      72.72    11.54    16.95     0.53    18.16     4.16P    0.04R    0.00  
Oxford            13   20   +3      74.20    11.67    17.75     0.97    21.61     6.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Kidderminster     13   20   +2      64.60    11.45    -1.47     0.06     6.07     1.08P    0.33R    0.00  
Histon            13   19   +3      70.03    11.73    12.81     0.24    13.38     2.98P    0.12R    0.00  
Exeter            13   19   +2      66.46    11.26     5.54     0.17     7.11     1.64P    0.14R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet         13   19   +0      66.05    11.36     3.17     0.11     6.83     1.52P    0.23R    0.00  
Woking            14   18   +1      59.37    10.86    -3.00     0.05     2.10     0.45P    0.58R    0.01  
Halifax           13   17   +2      58.57    11.11    -4.92     0.01     1.90     0.41P    0.76R    0.01  
Grays             13   16   +1      62.50    11.03     4.52     0.06     3.57     1.12P    0.29R    0.00  
Rushden_and_D.    13   16   +0      60.72    11.19     0.06     0.01     2.63     0.56P    0.64R    0.01  
Weymouth          13   13   -4      59.50    11.40    -2.07     0.01     2.25     0.38P    1.21R    0.01  
York              13   12   -8      50.01    10.99   -22.36     0.00     0.21     0.03P    6.11R    0.20  
Farsley           13   12  -12      42.57    10.71   -39.79     0.00     0.07     0.01P   19.82R    1.23  
Altrincham        12    9  -12      37.70    10.30   -48.87     0.00     0.01     0.01P   35.17R    3.83  
Stafford_Ranger   13    6  -12      32.93     9.72   -42.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.55R    8.20  
Northwich         13    2  -21      20.87     8.27   -75.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.09R   50.42  
Droylsden         13    2  -23      23.19     8.67   -73.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.71R   36.08