Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 5 October 2007 at 11:52:43 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 October 2007, Tottenham vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Arsenal          7   19  +12      84.35     9.99    56.23    46.34    71.39    83.82    90.83    96.89     0.00     0.00  
Man._Utd.        8   17   +5      64.81    10.26    16.70     1.91     6.91    16.09    28.22    55.36     0.04R    0.00  
Man._City        8   16   +5      73.59    10.71    36.76     9.97    27.80    47.94    63.98    83.15     0.02R    0.00  
Liverpool        7   15  +10      81.86     9.27    52.19    33.33    62.76    78.94    88.01    96.39     0.00     0.00  
Everton          8   13   +2      56.70    11.02     8.84     0.53     2.37     6.16    11.58    27.53     0.66R    0.04  
Portsmouth       8   12   +3      57.97    12.16    13.96     0.82     3.41     9.02    16.31    34.84     1.07R    0.07  
Blackburn        7   12   +2      63.37    11.66    19.37     1.88     7.01    16.34    27.56    51.05     0.23R    0.01  
Chelsea          8   12   -1      51.38    11.28    -1.26     0.12     0.62     2.02     4.70    14.43     2.84R    0.24  
Aston_Villa      7   11   +3      66.25    11.83    30.89     3.77    12.03    24.64    38.84    61.84     0.34R    0.02  
Newcastle        7   11   +2      56.00    12.37     9.37     0.77     2.89     6.53    12.46    29.07     2.15R    0.21  
West_Ham         7   10   +2      56.38    11.68    11.02     0.51     2.27     6.50    12.54    29.07     1.15R    0.12  
Wigan            8    8   +0      45.60    10.82    -3.01     0.04     0.22     0.74     1.85     6.41     6.86R    0.71  
Birmingham       8    8   -3      37.60    11.13   -23.71     0.00     0.06     0.23     0.49     2.13    25.68R    4.73  
Middlesbrough    8    8   -4      38.89    10.76   -24.03     0.01     0.09     0.23     0.43     1.89    21.82R    4.63  
Sunderland       8    8   -5      34.19    10.02   -36.30     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.11     0.55    36.05R    9.05  
Fulham           8    7   -2      45.91    10.87    -5.51     0.01     0.15     0.61     1.51     6.33     7.92R    1.07  
Reading          8    7   -9      31.65     9.90   -52.77     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.03     0.23    47.81R   14.41  
Tottenham        8    6   -2      41.53    10.57   -17.82     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.53     2.73    14.45R    1.86  
Bolton           8    5   -4      30.88     9.38   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.10    48.24R   11.20  
Derby            8    5  -16      22.23     8.38   -61.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.68R   51.62  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 October 2007, WBA vs Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Watford           9   20   +4      69.70    14.01     1.48     2.94     7.16    29.30    11.69P    1.09R    0.04  
Charlton          9   18   +6      85.22    14.61    35.76    20.18    35.81    70.22    44.83P    0.08R    0.00  
WBA               9   17  +11      93.06    12.83    56.07    39.72    59.35    87.96    68.67P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley          9   15   +2      75.46    13.83    18.83     4.54    12.12    45.14    19.95P    0.57R    0.03  
Coventry          9   15   +1      72.02    14.22    12.05     3.92     9.24    35.27    14.96P    0.91R    0.04  
Bristol_C.        9   14   +2      70.43    14.96    11.45     2.81     7.64    32.62    14.48P    1.48R    0.10  
Stoke             9   14   +2      74.13    14.07    17.38     4.26    11.23    41.06    19.72P    0.64R    0.03  
Scunthorpe        9   14   +1      73.72    14.42    16.43     4.01    10.78    40.38    18.33P    0.69R    0.06  
Burnley           8   13   +2      75.52    15.23    20.88     6.62    15.32    45.70    22.27P    0.81R    0.04  
Plymouth          9   13   +2      66.26    14.57     5.57     1.77     4.62    23.58     8.98P    2.81R    0.14  
Wolves            9   12   +1      63.04    14.63     2.11     1.20     3.38    17.43     7.07P    3.98R    0.29  
Colchester        9   11   +3      65.38    13.82     8.38     1.02     3.40    20.21     7.17P    2.50R    0.22  
Hull              9   11   +0      60.95    14.46    -1.87     0.61     1.98    13.85     4.91P    5.87R    0.81  
Blackpool         9   11   -1      63.46    14.10     1.37     0.92     2.75    16.82     6.09P    4.07R    0.33  
Ipswich           8   11   -1      68.03    15.46     7.55     2.80     7.08    27.93    11.51P    2.82R    0.27  
Cardiff           9   10   +0      58.10    14.14    -5.57     0.50     1.56     9.71     3.62P    7.49R    0.67  
Southampton       9   10   -5      47.25    13.70   -40.99     0.11     0.26     2.48     0.57P   27.78R    4.33  
Crystal_Palace    9    9   +0      60.64    13.85     2.50     0.46     1.71    12.44     4.71P    4.78R    0.46  
Sheffield_Utd.    9    9   -1      59.35    14.16    -4.08     0.45     1.64    11.27     3.69P    6.78R    0.84  
Preston           9    9   -2      51.45    13.79   -14.83     0.14     0.46     4.01     1.34P   16.30R    2.41  
Leicester         8    8   +0      58.49    15.51    -1.42     1.00     2.52    11.84     5.25P    9.20R    0.96  
Norwich           9    8   -5      38.59    12.42   -31.59     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.14P   52.41R   12.77  
Sheffield_Wed.    9    6   -9      35.60    12.64   -47.35     0.01     0.01     0.23     0.04P   62.34R   22.53  
QPR               8    3  -13      27.15    11.03   -70.12     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   84.59R   52.63  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2007, Yeovil vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
              -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team          Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leyton          9   19   +3      72.73    13.39     6.32     2.10     6.04    36.06    11.04P    1.04R    0.04  
Tranmere        9   16   +5      81.00    14.44    28.12     6.80    18.70    61.97    30.64P    0.37R    0.02  
Southend        9   16   +2      74.07    14.16    13.47     2.38     8.22    42.23    14.62P    1.14R    0.06  
Carlisle        9   15   +4      72.49    13.88    14.46     1.81     6.08    37.85    14.09P    1.30R    0.03  
Hartlepool      9   14   +4      77.13    13.69    25.32     3.90    11.79    51.15    20.54P    0.49R    0.01  
Swansea         9   14   +1      73.02    13.95    14.09     2.04     6.59    38.95    14.45P    1.38R    0.06  
Yeovil          9   14   -1      62.24    13.70    -2.63     0.39     1.47    14.44     4.64P    5.86R    0.39  
Nott_Forest     8   13   +8      91.48    14.45    52.41    23.66    46.72    83.36    60.10P    0.04R    0.00  
Swindon         9   13   +3      67.14    14.56     7.61     1.12     3.67    26.04     8.75P    3.77R    0.29  
Brighton        9   13   +2      66.69    13.94     5.72     0.81     2.90    23.81     7.43P    3.50R    0.18  
Huddersfield    9   13   -3      49.92    13.28   -29.41     0.03     0.20     3.19     0.67P   27.57R    3.82  
Bristol_R.      9   11   -2      65.75    14.60     3.64     0.58     2.78    22.29     6.80P    5.08R    0.50  
Walsall         9   11   -4      50.98    13.90   -23.26     0.05     0.31     4.07     0.91P   26.29R    3.77  
Leeds           9   10  +14     100.44     9.63    83.20    53.50    80.49    98.27    90.26P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton     9   10   +1      59.35    14.23    -3.29     0.28     1.04    12.04     3.50P   10.46R    0.91  
Doncaster       9   10   -1      51.88    13.30   -18.18     0.03     0.23     4.11     0.96P   21.68R    2.65  
Luton           9   10   -2      60.19    14.10    -3.30     0.14     0.82    12.65     3.54P    8.99R    0.77  
Crewe           9   10   -2      55.03    13.02   -10.79     0.04     0.21     5.36     1.25P   14.65R    1.77  
Gillingham      9   10   -8      48.16    13.30   -29.83     0.01     0.09     2.48     0.41P   32.44R    5.83  
Oldham          8    9   -2      62.01    14.94    -1.02     0.29     1.58    16.21     4.64P    9.13R    1.08  
Port_Vale       9    8   -3      47.15    13.30   -19.64     0.00     0.04     2.15     0.51P   34.59R    6.25  
Millwall        9    8   -4      41.33    12.10   -27.56     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.14P   51.77R   12.83  
Cheltenham      9    8   -6      39.94    12.57   -39.24     0.02     0.03     0.62     0.12P   57.60R   17.33  
Bournemouth     9    5   -9      31.93    10.83   -46.24     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   80.84R   41.41  

Adjustments:
Leeds          -15


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2007, Wrexham vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
              -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team          Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
MK_Dons         9   19  +10      94.57    12.43    56.72    32.98    65.39    91.24    71.96P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield    9   17   +9      88.37    13.06    43.89    17.68    46.33    80.86    56.27P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford        9   17   +7      82.82    13.83    33.82     9.77    31.15    68.05    39.78P    0.04R    0.01  
Chester         9   17   +6      83.84    14.00    32.65    10.34    33.01    70.24    43.10P    0.04R    0.00  
Darlington      9   16   +8      87.84    12.46    40.19    13.37    43.85    81.00    56.66P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet          9   15   +3      75.47    14.41    18.81     3.74    15.79    47.40    24.48P    0.17R    0.05  
Peterborough    9   14   +4      77.47    13.87    25.83     4.46    18.42    53.10    26.39P    0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury      9   14   +2      66.95    13.63     5.72     0.66     4.93    24.29     8.90P    0.47R    0.10  
Wycombe         9   14   +0      61.75    14.42    -3.74     0.39     3.23    16.20     6.42P    1.77R    0.56  
Stockport       9   13   +0      58.40    13.80   -10.61     0.15     1.50    10.33     3.06P    2.25R    0.59  
Morecambe       9   12   +0      64.65    13.83     4.43     0.36     3.24    19.23     6.96P    0.78R    0.16  
Accrington      9   12   -2      51.01    13.11   -22.46     0.04     0.41     3.69     1.04P    5.57R    1.88  
Dag_and_Red     9   12   -3      48.05    13.34   -27.34     0.01     0.23     2.73     0.66P   10.53R    3.94  
Rotherham       9   11   -1      65.88    14.50     6.35     0.65     4.89    23.05     9.38P    0.79R    0.14  
Notts_County    9   11   -2      64.35    14.30     2.90     0.46     3.69    20.09     7.14P    1.19R    0.43  
Brentford       9   11   -3      54.16    13.92   -17.21     0.07     0.68     6.29     1.74P    5.25R    1.72  
Rochdale        8   10   -2      76.72    15.17    25.86     4.21    18.44    51.44    25.30P    0.29R    0.12  
Grimsby         9   10   -3      51.73    13.19   -19.79     0.04     0.44     4.24     1.17P    5.63R    1.83  
Bradford        9   10   -5      45.84    13.39   -31.86     0.01     0.20     2.00     0.58P   13.91R    5.17  
Macclesfield    9    9   -1      64.96    14.30     8.47     0.60     3.96    21.56     8.27P    0.91R    0.27  
Bury            9    9   -4      48.84    13.22   -22.07     0.01     0.20     2.44     0.66P    9.29R    3.79  
Lincoln         9    7   -6      32.16    11.32   -53.74     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   53.28R   29.65  
Wrexham         8    6   -9      32.67    12.36   -53.30     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.03P   52.19R   31.68  
Mansfield       9    4   -8      36.64    12.01   -43.51     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   35.59R   17.91  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 4 October 2007, Woking vs Farsley; Check up-to-date)
                 -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team             Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Torquay           13   32  +18      96.50    10.41    57.06    31.17    88.98    43.45P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot         13   31  +13      90.07    10.70    36.45    11.97    73.63    25.03P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage         13   28  +17      97.82     9.97    58.54    35.77    91.92    57.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burton            13   26  +10      83.11    11.12    29.94     4.35    49.56    15.37P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge         13   26  +10      90.86    10.60    44.62    13.72    77.28    32.25P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury         13   21   +3      66.55    10.96     4.00     0.13     6.71     1.39P    0.12R    0.00  
Forest_Green      13   21   +2      76.75    11.28    21.50     1.06    27.90     5.95P    0.03R    0.00  
Crawley_Town      13   20   +5      73.07    11.63    17.73     0.62    18.68     4.38P    0.06R    0.00  
Oxford            13   20   +3      73.61    11.27    16.69     0.42    19.05     4.86P    0.02R    0.00  
Kidderminster     13   20   +2      64.23    11.48    -2.31     0.09     5.99     0.90P    0.32R    0.00  
Histon            13   19   +3      70.72    11.57    14.04     0.35    14.48     3.19P    0.04R    0.00  
Exeter            13   19   +2      65.81    11.05     4.48     0.10     5.84     1.29P    0.14R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet         13   19   +0      66.32    11.30     3.38     0.10     6.86     1.39P    0.22R    0.00  
Woking            14   18   +1      59.99    11.00    -2.02     0.01     2.10     0.51P    0.70R    0.01  
Halifax           13   17   +2      59.03    11.58    -4.28     0.07     2.60     0.56P    0.95R    0.01  
Grays             13   16   +1      61.36    11.32     2.87     0.01     3.13     0.91P    0.58R    0.00  
Rushden_and_D.    13   16   +0      59.85    11.44    -1.29     0.04     2.52     0.67P    0.91R    0.01  
Weymouth          13   13   -4      59.55    11.42    -2.13     0.00     2.31     0.41P    1.20R    0.02  
York              13   12   -8      50.45    11.26   -21.64     0.00     0.38     0.07P    6.39R    0.27  
Farsley           13   12  -12      42.55    10.34   -39.65     0.00     0.04     0.01P   19.89R    1.01  
Altrincham        12    9  -12      37.99    10.69   -48.17     0.00     0.01     0.00    35.40R    3.70  
Stafford_Ranger   13    6  -12      33.32     9.81   -41.83     0.00     0.01     0.00    52.37R    8.34  
Northwich         13    2  -21      20.62     8.06   -75.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.87R   51.43  
Droylsden         13    2  -23      23.43     8.82   -72.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.80R   35.20