Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 20 March 2007 at 21:34:00 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 March 2007, Everton vs Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Manchester_U    30   75  +50      92.89     3.02    63.64    94.78   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   69  +35      85.32     3.48    43.27     5.22    99.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         29   55  +27      72.47     3.70    35.84     0.00     0.94    99.35   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   54  +24      69.54     3.56    30.87     0.00     0.06    97.25    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          30   47   -3      57.25     3.60    -4.58     0.00     0.00     0.69    43.05     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   46  +12      58.76     3.59    14.83     0.00     0.00     1.61    68.94     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       30   45   -1      55.68     3.73    -1.96     0.00     0.00     0.20    28.70     0.00     0.00  
Reading         30   44   +5      56.98     3.77     8.20     0.00     0.00     0.86    46.49     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth      30   42   +5      52.24     3.68     4.20     0.00     0.00     0.04     8.47     0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   40   -5      50.93     3.60    -6.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.77     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       30   37   -5      47.03     3.66    -6.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.16R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   36   -4      47.08     3.51    -4.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.12R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   34   -6      44.73     3.72    -6.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.87R    0.00  
Fulham          30   34  -13      41.70     3.36   -18.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.57R    0.00  
Manchester_C    29   33  -12      41.62     3.57   -17.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.44R    0.01  
Wigan           30   33  -14      43.37     3.68   -14.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.92R    0.00  
Sheffield_U     30   31  -19      40.52     3.48   -22.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.43R    0.04  
Charlton        30   27  -21      35.34     3.54   -25.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.30R    0.70  
West_Ham        30   23  -28      28.21     2.95   -39.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.42R   36.31  
Watford         30   20  -27      26.34     3.19   -33.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.78R   62.95  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 March 2007, West_Bromwich vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Derby            39   73  +15      85.48     3.45    19.42    39.91    71.64    99.91    78.88P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       38   71  +20      84.94     3.73    24.37    39.30    67.37    99.55    76.84P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland       39   70  +21      81.56     3.51    23.92    10.51    30.79    96.65    48.99P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          38   68  +15      81.11     3.82    18.21     9.63    25.11    95.69    41.95P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    39   66   +4      75.85     3.46     4.55     0.20     1.54    60.50    11.92P    0.00     0.00  
West_Bromwich    39   64  +20      76.33     3.50    24.49     0.38     2.77    73.79    22.75P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          39   63  +12      74.30     3.53    14.58     0.07     0.72    44.75    11.44P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      39   60  +13      71.19     3.49    15.61     0.01     0.06    17.66     4.09P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke            39   58  +14      69.32     3.47    16.48     0.00     0.00     8.44     2.38P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       39   56   +9      67.45     3.54    11.95     0.00     0.00     2.36     0.56P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   55   +5      64.82     3.53     5.46     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Sheffield_W      39   53   -1      61.54     3.44    -3.01     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         38   52   +1      64.09     3.89     2.69     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         39   52   -6      59.72     3.37    -8.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Norwich          38   50   -8      59.29     3.78   -10.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          39   48   -3      58.07     3.62    -2.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        38   46   -7      55.14     3.65    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34R    0.00  
Burnley          37   41   -5      53.03     3.96    -5.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.83R    0.17  
Hull             39   41  -17      48.86     3.34   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.36R    1.51  
Barnsley         39   41  -24      47.81     3.31   -28.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.87R    3.92  
Queens_PR        38   40  -14      48.75     3.66   -17.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.68R    2.44  
Southend         39   39  -19      46.59     3.37   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.09R    8.17  
Luton            39   36  -20      43.06     3.39   -24.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.50R   33.99  
Leeds            39   36  -25      42.38     3.20   -30.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.33R   49.80  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 March 2007, Yeovil vs Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                   -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team               Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Scunthorpe          38   75  +31      90.21     3.66    37.19    85.50    97.64   100.00    98.37P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City        38   71  +19      84.32     3.80    22.49    10.71    61.98    99.79    71.39P    0.00     0.00  
Nottingham_Forest   38   67  +15      81.46     3.78    20.19     2.93    27.90    98.66    45.72P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil              38   64  +14      76.23     3.71    16.07     0.23     3.32    82.69    22.08P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham              38   63  +22      78.20     3.77    28.34     0.57     8.30    94.20    33.72P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool           37   59  +13      73.12     4.14    15.72     0.04     0.68    54.84    13.34P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere            38   59   +9      71.37     3.78    11.08     0.01     0.10    32.66     6.75P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea             38   58  +15      70.83     3.85    17.75     0.00     0.09    32.87     7.85P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster           38   54   +3      65.74     3.79     4.29     0.00     0.01     3.08     0.62P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle            38   53   -7      62.26     3.68    -9.31     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall            38   52   -4      61.38     3.77    -6.20     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale           38   50   +0      62.58     3.92     2.33     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.09P    0.03R    0.00  
Crewe               38   49   -5      59.11     3.80    -6.66     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.43R    0.00  
Huddersfield        38   49   -9      58.01     3.70   -12.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    1.10R    0.00  
Northampton         38   48   -1      58.10     3.67    -1.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.67R    0.00  
Brighton            38   48   -5      57.96     3.73    -6.28     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.24R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient       38   46  -10      55.16     3.76   -12.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.19R    0.01  
Gillingham          38   46  -17      55.52     3.80   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.46R    0.01  
Bournemouth         38   43  -12      52.31     3.73   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.96R    0.06  
Bradford            38   41  -10      50.02     3.70   -12.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.23R    0.42  
Cheltenham          38   40  -15      48.99     3.66   -17.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.62R    1.43  
Chesterfield        38   39   -8      49.01     3.70    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.80R    0.85  
Brentford           38   33  -28      39.68     3.34   -34.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.66R   69.77  
Rotherham           37   31  -10      42.11     4.01   -12.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.61R   27.45  

Adjustments:
Rotherham           -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 March 2007, Lincoln_C vs Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Hartlepool       38   75  +21      88.82     3.74    25.26    48.69    95.24   100.00    96.43P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          38   72  +28      88.02     3.50    35.58    44.57    94.15   100.00    96.10P    0.00     0.00  
Milton_Keynes    38   70  +14      81.67     3.74    15.32     3.03    37.36    98.30    48.78P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_C        38   67  +15      79.78     3.84    17.88     0.95    23.77    95.90    38.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon_Town     37   67  +15      80.74     4.02    17.18     2.32    30.53    97.17    47.19P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        37   63  +14      77.73     4.08    17.52     0.36    12.98    88.85    31.29P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe          37   58  +11      71.99     4.07    13.55     0.00     0.75    39.09    11.32P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington       38   57   +4      67.24     3.79     3.19     0.00     0.01     6.17     1.26P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury       34   52  +19      74.82     4.60    29.31     0.08     5.21    71.75    28.29P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     38   52   +3      64.23     3.94     4.90     0.00     0.00     1.38     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          38   50  -15      58.27     3.67   -19.79     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        38   49   +1      61.11     3.81     2.77     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   36   49   +0      62.43     4.24    -0.04     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         38   49   -4      58.84     3.72    -5.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County     38   48   -2      59.46     3.80    -1.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chester          38   47   -2      56.67     3.65    -3.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         36   46   +9      60.21     4.32     9.87     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           37   45  -12      54.68     3.94   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Bury             37   39  -14      47.62     3.73   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.77R    0.34  
Accrington       38   38  -13      46.64     3.57   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.52R    0.69  
Macclesfield     38   38  -17      47.50     3.77   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.12R    0.56  
Boston           38   38  -25      47.90     3.75   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.14R    0.86  
Wrexham          37   35  -26      43.28     3.64   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.01R    9.31  
Torquay          38   29  -24      35.94     3.31   -29.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.38R   88.25  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 March 2007, Dag_&_Red vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Dag_&_Red          37   78  +40      96.41     3.91    50.05    98.52   100.00    99.03P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         38   69  +28      84.01     3.70    33.82     1.36    98.89    40.62P    0.00     0.00  
York               38   66  +18      78.81     3.84    20.76     0.04    81.26    19.12P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter             36   61  +14      78.00     4.41    18.92     0.04    73.86    16.07P    0.00     0.00  
Burton             37   61   +1      73.07     3.99     1.00     0.00    23.75     3.77P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe          36   59   +8      74.76     4.44    11.07     0.00    43.26     8.18P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          34   57  +13      75.19     5.03    15.39     0.04    49.12     8.46P    0.00     0.00  
Gravesend          36   57   +3      72.28     4.42     5.27     0.00    20.70     3.48P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth           36   55   -4      67.54     4.33    -5.82     0.00     3.05     0.39P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      34   51   -3      66.69     4.86    -3.90     0.00     3.65     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          35   50   +1      65.63     4.66     1.63     0.00     2.14     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D        35   46   +2      61.77     4.60     3.11     0.00     0.27     0.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green       38   44   -7      54.08     3.87    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.42R    0.03  
Crawley            37   43   +1      55.56     4.16     1.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.39R    0.01  
Woking             37   42   -5      54.10     4.07    -5.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.94R    0.09  
Stafford_Rangers   37   42  -17      51.71     3.96   -20.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.05R    0.78  
Halifax            35   41   -2      55.17     4.60    -3.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.03R    0.12  
Altrincham         37   41  -12      51.15     4.03   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.05R    0.94  
Tamworth           36   40  -10      52.31     4.29   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.26R    0.69  
Cambridge_U        39   40  -21      46.67     3.31   -25.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.37R    6.92  
Northwich          31   39   -9      55.52     5.48   -15.45     0.00     0.04     0.01P    5.79R    0.32  
Grays              35   38   +2      54.25     4.66     3.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.91R    0.22  
St_Albans          38   35  -22      43.54     3.72   -26.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.39R   30.66  
Southport          38   33  -19      41.10     3.57   -23.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.39R   59.23  

Adjustments:
Crawley            -10