Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 20 February 2007 at 21:33:07 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 February 2007, Arsenal vs Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Manchester_U    27   66  +45      89.98     3.86    61.46    92.92    99.88   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   60  +29      81.60     4.22    38.81     7.01    89.95    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   50  +21      70.88     4.35    29.89     0.02     3.29    90.39    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   49  +26      71.72     4.51    36.70     0.04     6.83    91.60    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          27   47   +4      61.64     4.40     2.62     0.00     0.04     8.60    69.01     0.00     0.00  
Reading         27   43   +7      59.77     4.54     9.50     0.00     0.01     5.46    55.60     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth      27   41  +10      55.56     4.61     9.42     0.00     0.00     1.04    22.55     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   39   +9      58.31     4.70    13.38     0.00     0.01     2.83    44.97     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   36   -2      51.10     4.61    -2.09     0.00     0.00     0.06     4.46     0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   34   -8      49.08     4.38    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.52     0.07R    0.00  
Tottenham       26   33   -8      48.86     4.68    -9.45     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.66     0.15R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   32   -3      48.04     4.38    -2.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.09R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   32   -5      45.80     4.54    -6.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.38R    0.00  
Fulham          27   32  -12      42.51     4.13   -20.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.60R    0.00  
Sheffield_U     27   30  -12      41.63     4.01   -18.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.53R    0.03  
Manchester_C    26   30  -12      41.85     4.32   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.80R    0.03  
Wigan           26   25  -16      41.30     4.85   -16.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.89R    0.26  
West_Ham        27   20  -24      27.85     3.74   -36.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.65R   48.60  
Charlton        27   20  -27      31.32     4.23   -32.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.68R   18.05  
Watford         26   18  -22      28.83     4.28   -29.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.16R   33.03  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 February 2007, Wolverhampton vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Derby            32   63  +12      86.32     5.21    18.29    32.51    61.04    97.54    68.42P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   60  +20      86.82     5.48    29.60    42.15    66.17    97.50    74.53P    0.00     0.00  
West_Bromwich    33   59  +22      82.58     5.04    31.18    13.93    34.99    92.50    50.85P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      33   56  +17      77.27     5.04    22.64     2.06     7.71    65.55    22.16P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland       33   56  +15      75.49     5.05    17.45     1.03     4.29    50.33    15.92P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          32   56  +14      80.52     5.30    22.05     7.23    20.46    83.34    36.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          33   56  +12      74.76     5.00    13.55     0.70     3.06    42.53    11.96P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    33   53   +1      71.00     5.08     1.60     0.09     0.46    16.57     3.10P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   51  +17      73.25     5.00    24.07     0.26     1.47    36.02    11.17P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke            33   50  +13      70.24     4.97    16.66     0.05     0.34    15.98     5.08P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         32   43   -1      63.50     5.48     1.05     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.27P    0.07R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   42   +1      59.04     5.01     0.04     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    0.23R    0.00  
Sheffield_W      32   41   -4      60.07     5.35    -4.74     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P    0.44R    0.01  
Leicester        32   40   -4      58.19     5.21    -5.05     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.68R    0.04  
Burnley          32   39   -1      58.14     5.16    -1.03     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.73R    0.01  
Ipswich          32   39   -4      58.73     5.37    -3.32     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.81R    0.07  
Coventry         33   38  -13      51.89     4.79   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.57R    1.00  
Norwich          30   37  -10      53.45     5.56   -19.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    8.20R    0.99  
Luton            32   33  -14      50.90     5.45   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.86R    2.89  
Queens_PR        32   33  -15      47.86     5.14   -21.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.88R    8.00  
Hull             32   32  -12      47.78     5.09   -16.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.99R    7.63  
Barnsley         33   32  -23      44.70     4.71   -31.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.84R   22.58  
Southend         33   31  -20      45.09     4.81   -26.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.22R   19.70  
Leeds            32   30  -23      43.07     4.85   -33.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.50R   37.08  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 February 2007, Brentford vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                   -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team               Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Scunthorpe          32   61  +23      87.14     5.19    33.19    49.20    78.36    99.42    85.21P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham              32   58  +23      85.55     5.20    35.56    36.55    70.72    98.86    79.25P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City        32   56  +13      79.13     5.39    18.80     4.84    17.36    85.86    33.71P    0.00     0.00  
Nottingham_Forest   32   56  +10      79.94     5.32    17.20     6.85    21.26    88.98    37.52P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil              32   54  +13      75.47     5.28    16.61     1.45     6.24    67.08    22.03P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere            33   52  +10      73.51     5.06    15.37     0.43     2.30    54.16    14.79P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea             32   48  +13      70.29     5.35    17.87     0.13     0.87    32.12     8.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool           30   47  +10      70.74     5.83    12.80     0.33     1.63    34.42     8.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster           31   47  +10      70.60     5.53    14.54     0.23     1.25    33.21     9.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle            33   47   -6      62.78     4.99    -8.79     0.00     0.01     2.23     0.29P    0.30R    0.00  
Brighton            33   42   -4      56.90     5.01    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    5.71R    0.06  
Millwall            32   42   -5      60.38     5.42    -6.07     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.17P    1.86R    0.01  
Huddersfield        33   42   -7      57.74     5.02   -10.44     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    4.61R    0.03  
Gillingham          33   42  -14      56.84     4.98   -19.08     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    6.66R    0.10  
Crewe               31   41   -3      59.74     5.66    -6.43     0.00     0.01     1.21     0.22P    2.94R    0.06  
Port_Vale           32   40   -7      58.15     5.37    -8.46     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.04P    4.66R    0.15  
Northampton         34   39   -6      53.29     4.65    -8.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.96R    0.51  
Chesterfield        32   38   +0      56.45     5.28    -0.69     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P    7.16R    0.15  
Bradford            33   37   -5      53.43     5.01    -6.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.70R    0.96  
Cheltenham          32   35  -13      49.75     5.07   -19.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.63R    5.33  
Leyton_Orient       33   35  -16      47.12     4.75   -25.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.52R   10.85  
Bournemouth         32   34  -10      49.03     5.05   -16.04     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   51.77R    5.62  
Brentford           34   32  -24      41.67     4.22   -34.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.48R   59.39  
Rotherham           31   25   -5      46.53     5.70    -3.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.03R   16.79  

Adjustments:
Rotherham           -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 February 2007, Wrexham vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Walsall          33   64  +25      88.39     4.75    34.90    39.11    81.00    99.87    87.19P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       33   64  +18      87.00     4.95    25.47    23.87    68.81    99.48    77.39P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_C        33   62  +18      84.75     5.06    26.02    14.53    52.38    98.63    62.96P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon_Town     32   61  +17      84.44     5.29    23.30    13.21    47.89    97.89    61.00P    0.00     0.00  
Milton_Keynes    32   59  +13      83.05     5.26    21.47     8.35    37.80    96.22    49.34P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        33   56  +12      75.78     5.12    14.98     0.51     5.23    71.36    19.67P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe          33   54  +12      75.32     5.05    17.19     0.29     3.98    68.31    21.00P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County     33   46   +4      64.93     5.11     5.92     0.00     0.01     5.82     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington       33   46   +1      62.47     5.06    -0.75     0.00     0.00     2.23     0.41P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   44   -1      61.80     5.25    -2.57     0.00     0.01     2.10     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         32   44   -4      60.63     5.14    -7.50     0.00     0.01     0.93     0.15P    0.01R    0.01  
Chester          31   42   +1      61.88     5.42     0.50     0.00     0.00     2.26     0.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     33   42   -5      59.83     5.16    -5.04     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.14P    0.02R    0.01  
Shrewsbury       29   41  +14      73.06     5.94    27.86     0.14     2.90    53.40    18.45P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           32   39  -10      53.90     4.99   -16.64     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.94R    0.04  
Mansfield        32   38   -1      57.31     5.40    -1.10     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P    0.25R    0.02  
Grimsby          33   38  -19      51.59     4.94   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.58R    0.18  
Bury             32   37   -8      53.69     5.31   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.49R    0.12  
Rochdale         31   35   +4      56.83     5.56     6.12     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    0.39R    0.04  
Accrington       32   33   -9      49.07     5.09   -15.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.34R    1.31  
Macclesfield     32   33  -11      48.72     5.14   -16.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.62R    1.47  
Wrexham          32   31  -23      43.40     4.77   -34.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.40R   12.82  
Boston           33   31  -25      44.04     4.75   -33.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.58R   10.30  
Torquay          33   25  -23      36.27     4.47   -32.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.38R   73.69  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 February 2007, York vs Weymouth; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Dag_&_Red          31   64  +32      95.23     5.19    49.68    90.63    99.95    93.84P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         32   57  +23      84.42     5.15    34.83     7.21    95.84    43.46P    0.00     0.00  
York               32   55  +11      76.79     5.43    14.97     0.41    60.74    12.63P    0.00     0.00  
Gravesend          31   52   +6      76.34     5.63    11.63     0.43    56.37    10.71P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter             30   51  +13      78.57     5.96    21.37     1.06    72.22    18.43P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe          30   49   +5      73.86     5.99     9.48     0.12    39.10     7.78P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          30   48  +10      72.51     5.92    13.79     0.10    32.65     5.75P    0.00     0.00  
Burton             30   48   +1      70.66     5.81     2.48     0.02    19.50     3.37P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          30   45   +4      68.72     5.92     6.57     0.01    14.12     2.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster      30   45   -1      65.20     5.78    -3.30     0.01     4.29     0.65P    0.05R    0.00  
Weymouth           30   45   -4      64.70     5.75    -7.07     0.00     3.23     0.47P    0.07R    0.00  
Crawley            32   39   +3      59.41     5.45     4.89     0.00     0.30     0.05P    0.70R    0.02  
Rushden_&_D        30   39   -1      59.52     5.94    -2.97     0.00     0.69     0.11P    1.15R    0.07  
Woking             31   38   -3      58.43     5.64    -2.92     0.00     0.28     0.03P    1.64R    0.14  
Forest_Green       32   38   -6      53.21     5.17   -12.50     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.53R    1.11  
Northwich          27   35   -9      56.40     6.45   -16.80     0.00     0.30     0.02P    7.17R    1.26  
Cambridge_U        33   34  -12      49.07     4.96   -16.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.30R    7.59  
Stafford_Rangers   30   34  -15      51.04     5.68   -22.65     0.00     0.01     0.01P   25.38R    6.43  
Halifax            28   33   -2      56.86     6.42    -3.23     0.00     0.36     0.07P    4.84R    0.73  
St_Albans          32   33  -15      48.57     5.18   -21.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.72R   11.17  
Grays              31   31   +1      54.17     5.75     5.01     0.00     0.02     0.01P    8.70R    1.51  
Southport          32   31  -12      45.51     5.07   -19.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.40R   22.73  
Altrincham         31   31  -15      46.09     5.29   -24.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.69R   22.96  
Tamworth           29   28  -14      46.08     5.92   -22.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.66R   24.26  

Adjustments:
Crawley            -10