Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 19 February 2007 at 21:33:00 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 February 2007, Arsenal vs Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Manchester_U    27   66  +45      89.97     3.82    61.40    92.94    99.89   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   60  +29      81.56     4.28    38.77     7.00    88.91    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   50  +21      70.93     4.36    29.99     0.01     3.49    90.49    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   49  +26      71.84     4.54    36.90     0.04     7.67    92.09    99.56     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          27   47   +4      61.61     4.33     2.50     0.00     0.03     8.08    69.00     0.00     0.00  
Reading         27   43   +7      59.87     4.54     9.68     0.00     0.01     5.69    56.88     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth      27   41  +10      55.55     4.60     9.49     0.00     0.00     0.97    22.45     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   39   +9      58.25     4.68    13.35     0.00     0.00     2.68    44.45     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   36   -2      50.95     4.59    -2.32     0.00     0.00     0.03     3.94     0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   34   -8      49.08     4.35    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.62     0.07R    0.00  
Tottenham       26   33   -8      48.81     4.65    -9.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.62     0.13R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   32   -3      48.03     4.38    -2.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.66     0.11R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   32   -5      45.74     4.54    -6.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.50R    0.00  
Fulham          27   32  -12      42.45     4.13   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.62R    0.00  
Sheffield_U     27   30  -12      41.73     4.01   -18.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.54R    0.03  
Manchester_C    26   30  -12      41.79     4.37   -18.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.38R    0.01  
Wigan           26   25  -16      41.28     4.80   -16.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.83R    0.22  
West_Ham        27   20  -24      27.77     3.71   -36.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.69R   49.86  
Charlton        27   20  -27      31.43     4.31   -32.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.03R   17.98  
Watford         26   18  -22      28.92     4.23   -29.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.09R   31.89  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 February 2007, Wolverhampton vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Derby            32   63  +12      86.08     5.20    18.01    31.64    59.45    97.12    67.22P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   60  +20      86.60     5.48    29.24    41.48    64.31    97.42    72.89P    0.00     0.00  
West_Bromwich    33   59  +22      82.57     5.12    31.12    14.54    35.99    92.07    51.33P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      33   56  +17      77.31     5.01    22.65     2.16     7.74    65.68    22.21P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland       33   56  +15      75.76     5.08    17.84     1.33     5.02    52.07    16.88P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          32   56  +14      80.67     5.37    22.23     7.71    21.88    83.67    37.78P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          33   56  +12      74.70     5.02    13.41     0.76     3.25    42.15    12.03P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    33   53   +1      70.96     5.08     1.55     0.07     0.49    16.09     3.30P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   51  +17      73.24     5.02    24.04     0.28     1.54    35.52    11.06P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke            33   50  +13      70.13     5.03    16.52     0.04     0.31    16.07     4.85P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         32   43   -1      63.59     5.44     1.13     0.00     0.01     1.50     0.28P    0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   42   +1      59.14     4.97     0.17     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.04P    0.21R    0.00  
Sheffield_W      32   41   -4      60.15     5.35    -4.57     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.41R    0.01  
Leicester        32   40   -4      58.32     5.20    -4.86     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.62R    0.03  
Burnley          32   39   -1      57.95     5.24    -1.28     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.04P    0.83R    0.04  
Ipswich          32   39   -4      58.78     5.41    -3.27     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.04P    0.74R    0.05  
Coventry         33   38  -13      51.92     4.80   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.53R    1.09  
Norwich          30   37  -10      53.61     5.55   -18.70     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    7.68R    0.86  
Luton            32   33  -14      50.75     5.39   -16.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.28R    3.21  
Queens_PR        32   33  -15      47.84     5.11   -21.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.27R    7.84  
Hull             32   32  -12      47.72     5.08   -16.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.48R    7.79  
Barnsley         33   32  -23      44.66     4.68   -31.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.92R   23.20  
Southend         33   31  -20      44.99     4.81   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.92R   20.18  
Leeds            32   30  -23      43.22     4.88   -33.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.05R   35.70  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 February 2007, Scunthorpe vs Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                   -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team               Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Scunthorpe          32   61  +23      87.21     5.15    33.26    50.07    78.93    99.44    85.23P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham              32   58  +23      85.37     5.19    35.30    34.80    68.74    98.81    77.98P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City        32   56  +13      79.48     5.38    19.25     5.63    18.61    87.31    35.80P    0.00     0.00  
Nottingham_Forest   32   56  +10      79.83     5.31    17.01     6.58    20.62    88.12    35.59P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil              32   54  +13      75.47     5.36    16.63     1.77     6.58    66.88    21.53P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere            33   52  +10      73.73     5.06    15.62     0.40     2.46    54.97    15.46P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea             32   48  +13      70.26     5.32    17.79     0.15     0.90    31.66     8.71P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool           30   47  +10      70.86     5.91    13.05     0.40     1.90    34.74     9.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster           31   47  +10      70.57     5.56    14.51     0.19     1.24    32.84     9.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle            33   47   -6      62.71     4.94    -8.88     0.00     0.01     1.84     0.27P    0.23R    0.00  
Brighton            33   42   -4      56.98     5.02    -8.23     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    5.23R    0.09  
Millwall            32   42   -5      60.36     5.39    -6.07     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.21P    1.72R    0.02  
Huddersfield        33   42   -7      57.83     5.01   -10.33     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    4.04R    0.07  
Gillingham          33   42  -14      56.91     4.96   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    6.11R    0.18  
Crewe               31   41   -3      59.74     5.66    -6.44     0.00     0.01     1.26     0.24P    2.59R    0.12  
Port_Vale           32   40   -7      58.02     5.40    -8.67     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.10P    4.71R    0.10  
Chesterfield        32   38   +0      56.33     5.25    -0.79     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.06P    7.05R    0.27  
Bradford            33   37   -5      53.27     4.94    -7.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.77R    1.36  
Northampton         33   36   -7      51.37     4.89    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.59R    2.75  
Cheltenham          32   35  -13      49.75     5.06   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.66R    6.64  
Leyton_Orient       33   35  -16      47.15     4.69   -25.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.61R   13.21  
Bournemouth         32   34  -10      49.15     5.10   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.34R    6.85  
Brentford           33   32  -23      43.18     4.45   -32.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.48R   47.61  
Rotherham           31   25   -5      46.33     5.72    -3.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.86R   20.75  

Adjustments:
Rotherham           -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 February 2007, Wrexham vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Walsall          33   64  +25      88.28     4.79    34.74    38.65    80.44    99.75    86.49P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       33   64  +18      87.11     4.99    25.67    24.67    69.73    99.64    77.96P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_C        33   62  +18      84.56     5.08    25.67    13.15    51.06    98.51    61.31P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon_Town     32   61  +17      84.64     5.30    23.55    14.00    49.48    98.09    62.49P    0.00     0.00  
Milton_Keynes    32   59  +13      83.09     5.24    21.53     8.53    37.37    96.19    49.29P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        33   56  +12      75.74     5.12    14.92     0.51     5.33    70.72    20.20P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe          33   54  +12      75.27     5.03    17.13     0.27     3.83    68.38    20.66P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County     33   46   +4      65.08     5.08     6.11     0.00     0.03     5.93     1.27P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington       33   46   +1      62.67     5.07    -0.41     0.00     0.01     2.44     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   44   -1      61.85     5.25    -2.49     0.00     0.00     2.09     0.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         32   44   -4      60.60     5.10    -7.56     0.00     0.01     0.89     0.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Chester          31   42   +1      61.88     5.39     0.56     0.00     0.00     2.31     0.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     33   42   -5      59.89     5.23    -4.97     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.12P    0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury       29   41  +14      73.03     5.94    27.87     0.21     2.70    53.47    18.59P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           32   39  -10      53.82     4.98   -16.82     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.79R    0.04  
Mansfield        32   38   -1      57.20     5.33    -1.25     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P    0.18R    0.01  
Grimsby          33   38  -19      51.51     4.86   -26.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.33R    0.19  
Bury             32   37   -8      53.69     5.21   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.47R    0.09  
Rochdale         31   35   +4      56.73     5.58     5.98     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.12P    0.30R    0.03  
Accrington       32   33   -9      48.89     5.07   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.91R    1.26  
Macclesfield     32   33  -11      48.75     5.27   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.68R    1.39  
Wrexham          32   31  -23      43.47     4.82   -34.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.60R   13.22  
Boston           33   31  -25      44.15     4.77   -33.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.01R   10.43  
Torquay          33   25  -23      36.20     4.52   -32.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.64R   73.34  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 February 2007, York vs Weymouth; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Dag_&_Red          31   64  +32      95.26     5.31    49.70    90.53    99.96    93.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         32   57  +23      84.42     5.15    34.83     7.36    95.94    42.92P    0.00     0.00  
York               32   55  +11      76.76     5.39    14.97     0.51    60.44    12.71P    0.00     0.00  
Gravesend          31   52   +6      76.37     5.63    11.62     0.44    57.13    10.99P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter             30   51  +13      78.51     5.97    21.26     0.89    71.97    18.41P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe          30   49   +5      74.08     5.97     9.80     0.14    41.00     8.32P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          30   48  +10      72.34     5.88    13.44     0.09    31.95     5.88P    0.00     0.00  
Burton             30   48   +1      70.27     5.78     1.88     0.02    17.84     3.02P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          30   45   +4      68.70     5.96     6.51     0.03    14.40     2.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster      30   45   -1      65.20     5.79    -3.27     0.01     4.21     0.60P    0.04R    0.00  
Weymouth           30   45   -4      64.71     5.72    -7.08     0.00     3.09     0.45P    0.07R    0.01  
Crawley            32   39   +3      59.08     5.45     4.44     0.00     0.30     0.07P    0.95R    0.07  
Rushden_&_D        30   39   -1      59.76     5.88    -2.59     0.00     0.76     0.15P    1.01R    0.07  
Woking             31   38   -3      58.56     5.67    -2.75     0.00     0.32     0.07P    1.44R    0.10  
Forest_Green       32   38   -6      53.17     5.15   -12.47     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.92R    1.19  
Northwich          27   35   -9      56.65     6.48   -16.35     0.00     0.26     0.04P    7.04R    1.14  
Cambridge_U        33   34  -12      49.05     4.93   -16.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.11R    7.63  
Stafford_Rangers   30   34  -15      51.27     5.64   -22.26     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.64R    5.72  
Halifax            28   33   -2      56.81     6.44    -3.23     0.00     0.41     0.09P    5.02R    0.86  
St_Albans          32   33  -15      48.51     5.19   -22.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.70R   11.58  
Grays              31   31   +1      53.97     5.66     4.69     0.00     0.01     0.00     8.84R    1.52  
Southport          32   31  -12      45.55     5.11   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.15R   22.77  
Altrincham         31   31  -15      46.06     5.32   -24.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.38R   23.48  
Tamworth           29   28  -14      46.27     5.93   -21.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.68R   23.87  

Adjustments:
Crawley            -10