Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 10 May 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.01    99.79     2.94   101.48     3.50    56.91   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.59    20.31    -5.07    80.16     3.51    54.09     0.00    98.75    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.50    67.02    15.13    68.32     3.97    34.37     0.00     1.16    78.25    93.25    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.14    38.92    -3.70    63.08     3.84    16.21     0.00     0.08    12.28    53.17    91.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.74    31.36     0.81    61.25     3.88    19.90     0.00     0.01     7.46    35.35    83.72     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.14    66.11     7.51    56.39     4.00     8.54     0.00     0.00     0.44     5.12    34.59     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.54    84.09     9.63    55.13     4.16     2.98     0.00     0.00     0.52     3.61    23.04     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.59    13.33    -7.93    56.87     4.03    12.31     0.00     0.00     0.81     7.08    42.57     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.03    25.91    -5.75    54.82     4.12     5.40     0.00     0.00     0.27     2.31    21.64     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.49    77.10     3.76    49.32     3.70    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.15     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.28    62.43    -1.25    48.90     3.76    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.21     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.54    47.85    -4.26    49.23     3.89    -9.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.38     0.04R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.51    63.84    -5.26    45.16     3.73   -19.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.03R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.11    66.77    -1.15    43.71     3.82   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.39R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.71    36.51     4.61    37.76     3.65   -13.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.02R    1.71  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.04    21.59    -2.41    38.55     3.92   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.33R    1.97  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.59    27.49    -3.25    36.89     3.75   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.76R    4.07  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.63    27.49    -3.59    35.94     3.65   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.86R    5.13  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.48    43.06     0.54    34.00     3.91   -30.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.09R   16.67  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.97    30.11    -1.30    29.52     3.64   -34.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.47R   70.41  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.73    80.03     7.75    86.87     3.93    31.29    51.32    94.02   100.00    95.80P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.59    64.92     3.18    86.24     3.99    33.10    46.61    91.71    99.99    94.53P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.40    71.42     2.35    76.99     4.05    14.95     1.36     7.68    95.25    29.74P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.84    30.03     9.73    75.73     4.00    36.08     0.61     5.45    93.20    37.61P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.13    74.72     5.17    73.41     4.03    11.61     0.09     1.04    78.95    16.91P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.02    62.97     1.69    68.76     4.08     5.59     0.00     0.06    35.42     6.84P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.22    67.71    -1.87    67.44     4.05    -1.81     0.00     0.01    22.06     3.77P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.20    71.87     6.26    66.83     4.04     4.79     0.00     0.00    19.71     3.45P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.22    49.31    -3.07    66.92     4.06     2.92     0.00     0.01    20.42     4.43P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.44    52.27     4.34    65.54     4.09     7.30     0.00     0.01    14.51     2.81P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.03    50.54    -2.27    65.86     4.00     1.91     0.00     0.00    13.31     2.68P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.03    33.60    -6.43    62.72     4.01    -0.95     0.00     0.00     3.84     0.86P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.14    67.70     4.40    61.57     4.03    -5.42     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.25P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.05    50.82     7.76    60.09     3.98     3.70     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.17P    0.20R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.75    42.77    -1.63    59.67     4.01    -3.99     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.12P    0.25R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.38    56.59    -1.22    58.16     3.97   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    1.26R    0.02  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.70    23.65    -3.11    53.42     3.97    -7.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.55R    0.58  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.39    44.54    -2.02    52.69     3.94   -15.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.94R    1.11  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.87    16.62    -9.56    53.32     3.99    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.48R    0.47  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.38    35.74    -3.26    52.54     3.96   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.51R    1.21  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.61    31.52    -5.33    52.43     3.98   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.38R    1.53  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.71    31.20     0.30    49.41     3.92   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.42R    4.80  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.05    37.77    -6.86    44.94     3.95   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.03R   41.74  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.89    19.56    -6.30    43.94     3.93   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.90R   48.54  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.73    95.84     9.43    82.08     4.27    20.05    55.68    74.92    98.16    79.46P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.81    57.73     4.00    77.98     3.98    28.87    17.44    42.11    89.56    54.97P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.76    66.51    11.27    75.72     3.96    29.20     7.92    22.12    79.14    35.84P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.45    51.70    -0.68    74.42     3.97    20.13     3.70    12.32    65.53    26.72P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.31    76.27     4.53    74.90     3.92    17.01     4.25    13.75    69.10    25.49P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.22    44.27     8.43    75.91     3.86    35.29     8.37    23.82    82.69    41.26P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.72    33.40    -4.12    72.51     3.72    19.77     0.87     4.34    47.10    17.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.97    93.27     5.93    72.09     4.25     4.14     1.45     4.90    38.25     9.64P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.25    39.54     3.34    69.66     4.20    20.95     0.31     1.69    24.20     7.70P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.39    35.59     1.05    66.05     3.62    14.76     0.00     0.01     3.69     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.85    58.54     6.02    64.75     3.95    10.06     0.01     0.03     2.39     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.77    38.15    -4.05    60.52     4.04     0.30     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.03    32.41    -0.84    56.76     3.90     0.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.76    54.02    -5.75    55.28     3.81   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.27    40.47     3.56    54.89     4.03    -1.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.68    42.69    -6.04    53.66     4.03   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.52    34.76     1.31    50.37     3.88    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.84R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.58    30.41    -1.69    47.18     3.81   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.25R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.85    46.83    -1.54    48.29     4.13   -20.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.97R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.77    29.27    -0.81    45.35     3.80   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.18R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.75    47.54    -1.46    40.96     3.88   -31.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.54R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.10     4.75   -17.29    27.23     3.60   -53.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.57  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.21    26.20   -14.61    22.19     3.76   -47.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.43  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.24    83.81    10.53    82.81     4.06    26.15    16.67    66.85    99.84    74.98P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.77    85.85     8.43    86.25     4.26    28.28    49.02    87.91    99.99    91.29P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.33    63.64     1.17    83.80     4.10    27.10    23.51    74.64    99.89    82.57P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.75    79.77     0.52    79.11     3.98    12.64     2.75    25.73    98.34    43.53P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.89    80.86    15.09    80.20     4.22    28.59     8.00    42.35    99.31    56.90P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.85    46.21     3.22    71.89     4.02    17.34     0.03     1.36    70.12    19.89P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.26    51.00     3.77    71.03     4.00    14.99     0.03     0.93    61.62    15.84P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.32    79.05     7.15    69.21     3.99     5.84     0.00     0.19    36.63     6.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.58    39.24    -4.52    67.58     4.02     5.88     0.00     0.04    24.83     6.46P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.04    67.02    10.19    61.07     3.94     0.95     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.44    40.04    -0.17    63.17     4.18     3.67     0.00     0.01     5.49     1.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.80    46.98     6.96    60.44     3.93     4.03     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.03    59.77     2.11    57.91     3.88    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.73    38.94    -9.58    60.17     4.26    -9.67     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.02    50.37    -2.92    58.04     4.10    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.28    56.34     1.79    55.46     3.90   -10.53     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.02    50.51     3.47    52.84     4.10   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.38    35.92    -8.80    53.79     3.95   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -8.02    19.55   -10.13    52.60     3.96   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.27    13.84   -10.98    53.17     4.04   -10.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.25     5.70   -11.21    52.79     4.27    -5.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.35    40.03     2.46    45.27     3.74   -19.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.46R    1.46  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.14    24.24    -5.92    41.30     3.80   -29.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.12R   12.12  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.71     1.36   -12.63    33.93     4.16   -28.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.38R   86.38  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.95    83.23    13.60    84.31     4.02    31.95    71.90    99.78    78.44P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.26    74.61     3.44    79.36     4.06    18.50    15.38    94.23    31.98P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.58    27.43    -1.76    77.28     3.78    28.00     7.16    90.59    35.87P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.69    34.62    -2.50    75.52     4.05    21.76     3.74    78.79    25.57P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.23    71.10     9.01    74.41     4.03    18.10     1.37    68.53    14.29P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.59    82.73     2.68    69.12     3.92    -0.61     0.07    15.15     2.28P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.58    83.59     4.80    65.66     3.45    -6.02     0.00     2.37     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.62    35.12     1.38    68.65     3.76    14.89     0.01    14.78     3.64P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.77    53.46     5.04    65.95     3.51     8.00     0.00     2.94     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.90    82.43     4.39    64.36     3.73    -7.54     0.00     1.24     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.21    51.03     1.40    70.18     4.51    11.61     0.36    26.74     6.09P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.28    55.61    -0.80    64.84     3.82    -0.17     0.00     1.98     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.04    41.84     2.47    64.80     3.81     7.74     0.00     2.20     0.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.03    37.83     3.41    62.12     3.79     6.68     0.00     0.43     0.08P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.69    65.76     4.12    59.52     4.28    -8.58     0.00     0.23     0.04P    1.38R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.01    55.28     0.38    54.53     3.45   -13.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.62R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.29    51.73    -3.89    56.77     3.94   -14.32     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.25R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.34    28.23    -2.33    55.40     3.96    -5.34     0.00     0.01     0.00     7.91R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -6.98    23.49    -7.83    54.45     3.75   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.83R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.77    14.60    -6.26    55.28     3.99    -2.94     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.93R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.22    26.14   -12.57    49.81     3.42   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.76R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.55    44.03     0.85    49.93     3.66   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.45R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.10    11.61   -14.78    52.02     4.07   -15.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.80R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.83    21.99    -4.26    32.48     3.33   -41.04     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94